I’m going to enter bitcoin to SELL at 78505 THIS IS NOT A SIGNAL TRADE CALL THIS IS JUST SHOWING YOU MY LIVE ACTION. Please, please please do not copy me blindly I am trading small on bitcoin because it’s aggressive and it’s bound to move fast because of the latest news with the reopening of the strait of Hormuz. Now this news whilst good and positive we have to be careful not to knee-jerk react and take it as it comes but not get carried away but my reasoning for selling is if you look at the weekly chart on the moving average which is the 20 moving average I’m suspecting that will hit resistance then pull back. I don’t think I will be in this trade for too long. I shall indeed keep you updated if indeed I do sell I’m just waiting and keep you updated when I exit whether that’s for a profit or a loss. Please keep an eye on the comments and I will comment below in real time today

Right now, price is not trending. It’s slightly under pressure, but overall it’s just moving sideways. When you break it down, it makes sense. There’s still inflation risk and geopolitical tension in the background, which would normally support gold. But at the same time, interest rates are still relatively high and the dollar is holding steady, which puts pressure on it. So price is essentially stuck between those two forces. For me, this is a good example of staying disciplined with a simple approach. P – Price is ranging with no clear direction A – No strong confirmation yet, so no need to force a trade D – Decision comes after the Fed, not before If the Fed comes out more hawkish, I’d expect gold to come under pressure and I’ll look for shorts on confirmation. If the tone is more dovish, then I’d expect a move higher and I’ll look to follow momentum. If it’s neutral, then it’s probably more of the same sideways action. For now, it’s about patience and letting the market show its hand. No need to force trades in a low conviction environment.

On the surface, markets look calm. Oil hasn’t exploded, gold is sideways, equities are holding up, and there’s no real panic in the system. But when you step back, the bigger picture is still quite fragile. We’ve got ongoing tension around Iran and energy supply. Even if things haven’t escalated massively, the risk is still there and that keeps pressure on oil and inflation expectations in the background. Central banks are also starting to push back slightly. There are comments coming through that markets look a bit overvalued and too comfortable given the risks. At the same time, there’s a bigger structural shift happening with energy. This situation is starting to change how countries think about oil long term. That doesn’t move markets overnight, but it matters over time. So for me, this is how I’m looking at it: Short term, markets are pricing things as contained. Long term, there’s still pressure building underneath. That gap is where things can move quickly if something changes. Worth staying aware of rather than getting too comfortable.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c75kp1y43lgo Interesting perspective coming out from the Bank of England today. They’re suggesting that equity markets look overvalued right now, and when you step back and look at the bigger picture, it’s not hard to see why. We’ve still got geopolitical tension in the background, particularly around Iran and oil. Inflation hasn’t fully disappeared, and interest rates are still relatively high. Yet despite that, markets have held up pretty well and risk hasn’t really been repriced. To me, this creates a bit of a disconnect. On one side, you’ve got a fragile macro environment with plenty of potential triggers. On the other side, you’ve got markets behaving as if things are under control. That doesn’t mean markets will suddenly drop, but it does suggest that risk may not be fully priced in right now. It’s one of those environments where things can stay calm… until they’re not. Definitely something I’m keeping in mind when looking at setups across the board.

Been looking at AUDUSD and took a short position last night. This isn’t a signal, just sharing my thinking. From a technical perspective, price pushed up strongly but started to show signs of slowing down around the recent highs. We’ve got rejection wicks and a bit of loss of momentum in that 0.7150 to 0.7200 area, which for me looks like potential resistance forming. On the fundamental side, I’m still leaning slightly risk-off overall. There’s ongoing geopolitical tension and uncertainty around inflation and rates, and that typically doesn’t favour AUD strength in a sustained way. So for me, this is a combination of: Price hitting resistance Momentum slowing Macro backdrop not fully supportive of risk assets I’m treating this as a swing idea rather than a quick trade, and I’m happy to be patient with it as long as the structure holds. Let’s see how it plays out.