📊 Southern NH Market Brief — Week of March 5, 2026

Stabilized NH multifamily is borderline right now. That's not a bad thing — it's actually the filter that separates serious investors from people who are just shopping.

Here's what the data says this week:

📌 Rates are holding, but spreads are moving. The Fed held at 3.5–3.75% in January and March looks like another hold. But the 10-Year Treasury pushed above 4.1% for the fourth straight session this week — and that's what's actually pricing your deals. Agency multifamily spreads are widening. If you're underwriting a Southern NH multifamily right now, model 5.75–6.25% all-in and stress-test at 6.5%. Anything below that and you're probably not seeing the real picture.

📌 Vacancy is the thesis. NH statewide rental vacancy sits around 4%. National average is 6.8%. Manchester-Nashua is around 4.7% — up from about 3%, but still tight. Average 2BR asking rents are running $1,833–$2,000/month. And there's no new supply coming to fix this. Construction pipeline is thin, costs are high, and NH isn't building its way out of this shortage anytime soon. That's the long-term ownership case, and it hasn't changed.

📌 HB 631 goes live July 1 — and the window is narrowing. Starting this summer, municipalities must allow multifamily by-right on commercially-zoned land with adequate infrastructure. Corridors along Rte 3, Rte 101, and I-93 open up. There are 12+ rollback bills filed, but Governor Ayotte has signaled a veto. The political risk is real but the law probably holds. If you're looking at commercial land plays in Southern NH, the time to scout is now — not after it's priced in.

📌 Our underwriting lens on this market. Cap rates are running ~5.5–6.5% — borderline against our 6% minimum. DSCR is coming in around 1.10–1.30x depending on the deal, which is tight against our 1.25x floor. Cash-on-cash on stabilized assets is roughly 6–8%. IRR over a 10-year hold? Possible at 10–13%, especially on value-add. Stabilized deals at face value? Tough to make work right now. Off-market buys at 10–15% below ask with rent upside? That's where the numbers actually work.

My take: I'm not buying stabilized NH multifamily at asking prices in this rate environment. The deals that pencil right now are value-add — deferred CapEx, rents with room to run, or sellers who need to move. I'm also watching the ADU angle closely. Parking reform is in effect now too (municipalities can't mandate more than 1 space per unit), which opens up value-add optionality on properties with underutilized lots. That's a lever worth running numbers on.

What are you seeing in your pipeline right now — are deals penciling, or are you mostly walking? Drop it below.

We break down deals like this live every month at our free NH investor meetups or you can hop on the Q/A call anytime — candorinvestmentgroup.com/candor-investment-meetups

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