Title: Most new fragrance launches don’t last — here’s why that matters

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I don’t think the fragrance industry publishes a clean, official “failure rate” for new perfume launches, but the reality is pretty obvious once you zoom out: most new releases don’t become long-term winners. In consumer products more broadly, you’ll often see numbers like ~95% of new products failing tossed around, and fragrance feels like it follows that same pattern (especially for brand-new “pillar” launches).

Why do so many launches disappear?

The market is flooded. You’ll see claims like 1,000+ new fragrances a year (and some reporting suggests it can be several thousand new entries in a year).
Most scents aren’t built for a 10-year run. A lot of releases are designed to sell fast, ride hype, then quietly fade.
Short lifespan = fast discounting. When something doesn’t hit, it often shows up discounted pretty quickly (you’ll recognize it when it suddenly lands at grey-market discounters).

What “successful” usually means in the real world

In the industry, “good” often just means it sells—consistently—at scale. Not necessarily that it’s the most artistic or enthusiast-approved.

That’s why true monsters of sales and longevity (the stuff your non-frag friends recognize) are the real outliers—think the handful that turn into multi-year pillars for houses like Chanel and Dior.

Why flankers and “safe” launches dominate :

If you already have something that sells, a flanker is basically a lower-risk bet:

Familiar name + bottle DNA
Easier marketing
Built-in audience
Faster path to profit if it catches

The twist: even if most individual launches fail, the category is booming

The category can be on fire even while most new releases don’t survive long-term.

For example:

In the U.S., prestige fragrance was up 6% (H1 2025), and mass market fragrance was up 17% (dollar sales).
U.S. prestige beauty in 2024 was heavily driven by fragrance growth (with one report citing prestige fragrance sales up 12% in 2024).

Niche growth (with a grain of salt)

You’ll also see market-research-style projections that the niche is growing fast—some reports cite ~14.5%, but I always treat those forecasts cautiously because different firms model differently.

My bottom line: only a small slice of new releases become true long-term staples, but that doesn’t mean the industry is struggling—if anything, the “drop culture” + collecting behavior is helping keep the overall category growing. This information on growth rates was found in an article I read https://cosmeticsbusiness.com/us-prestige-beauty-tops-33-billion-in-2024

Question for the Brotherhood: Do you think the constant flood of launches is good for the hobby, or does it make it harder for genuinely great scents to get the attention they deserve?

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