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Constellation Software (CNSWF) Earnings Call Quick Notes
- Growth: Rev +18% QoQ / +15% YoY. FCFA2S (Free Cash Flow) +16% YoY. - AI Impact: Management says "Zero disruption" so far. - The Moat: Fast coding is just "table stakes." What actually retains customers isn't code deployment speed, but deep understanding of customer workflows and data. - The "1% Rule": Most VMS software is <1% of a client’s revenue. It's too small to be a target for cost-cutting. Replacing one software with AI doesn't save much—you’d have to overhaul the whole stack to see real savings. - M&A Pipeline: Public market fear hasn't hit private sellers yet. They aren't seeing a rush of owners looking to sell cheap to Constellation. Mohnish Pabrai just bought a significant amount of Constellation; it’s now almost 5% of his Wagons Fund. Phil Town Currently holds 200 shares (added 50 this week). He’s looking for a better price to add his next tranches.
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The future belongs to creators and investors
2026 is the year everything changes for traditional careers and employees. The future belongs to creators and investors — not consumers. However for most people, creating a business or building an AI-native career simply isn't a realistic path. I'm pretty sure, in the next 1-2 years, most people will realize investing is the most important — maybe the only — reliable way to make a living. But it's not something you can just decide to start and you can do it well. It's a skill. It takes time, and it takes following the right person and strategies. It has to be built before you need it. If you're uncertain about your financial future, or you're ready to build real freedom for yourself — find someone who has done it and has helped lots of others get there too. DM me. I'll show you a clear path forward. It won't take long. The best time to plant a tree was ten years ago. The second best time is now. Wendy
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Is the SaaSpocalypse thesis overblown?
The Panic → Claude Code lets you vibe-code a CRM front end in a weekend. Market conclusion: Salesforce goes to zero. → IBM had its biggest drop in 25 years. SaaS sold off across the board. → The thesis confuses code with a business. A dashboard is not an enterprise. The Moats → Network effects: 7,000+ apps built on Salesforce. A flywheel no startup can replicate. → Switching costs: 2-3 year migrations. All workflows, training, data locked in. Nobody risks their career on a swap. → Trust: Decades of secure deployments. SOC2 compliance. Regulated industries don't gamble. → Proprietary knowledge: Cross-industry best practices accumulated over 25 years. Claude Code can't scrape what isn't public. The Math → Walmart pays Salesforce ~$6M/year for a supplier portal serving 100K vendors. → Replacing it: 50+ developers ($20M+), cloud costs, SOC2 audits, global retraining. Worse product, 4x the cost. → Walmart does $600B in revenue. No CFO torches infrastructure to save $6M. The juice isn't worth the squeeze. The Real Dynamic → Jensen Huang: "The robot won't reinvent the microwave. It'll just use the microwave." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odARk_cFhig → AI agents won't replace SaaS tools — they'll use them. Jevons Paradox: lower cost of use → more total consumption. → Salesforce already deploying AgentForce, tracking Agentic Work Units, experimenting with usage-based pricing, running a $50B buyback. → E-commerce was available in 1991. Hit 1% of retail by 2000. Took 20+ years to truly disrupt. Incumbents adapted. They didn't die. AI agents are more likely to replace the human 'tool users' than the SaaS tools themselves I will share our "buy price" for CRM in my paid clients community.
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Currency devaluation is the endgame - How are you going to protect your hard-earned money?
The current market sentiment feels strikingly like the 1999 bubble, but with a far more complex macro backdrop. With $36 trillion in US federal debt and annual interest payments hitting $1 trillion, the math for the US government is becoming impossible. There are only three ways out: 1. Budget cuts: A 25% reduction is needed, but it’s politically suicidal. - It simply won't happen. 2. Wealth taxes: Driving capital and billionaires relocate. 3. Money printing (QE): The most likely path forward, with the money supply expanding by ~7% annually to bridge the fiscal gap. This leads to one inevitable conclusion: Debt monetization is the only "out." The government will devalue the currency to effectively "inflate away" its obligationsm. Unless AI productivity delivers a massive structural miracle, we are likely entering a two-decade inflationary cycle. Expect real inflation to hover around 5%—far exceeding reported figures. Currency devaluation is the endgame. This leaves us with critical questions: - How will you protect your hard-earned savings from losing its purchasing power? - In this high-inflation era, who will be the victims, and who will be the beneficiaries? - From an investment perspective, which "non-discretionary" businesses will people be forced to buy from regardless of the economy? These are the anti-fragile businesses you should consider investing in. My thoughts: 1. The Beneficiaries: Owners of cash-flowing real assets. In an inflationary environment, these individuals become wealthier and freer. This "capital class" will increasingly focus their spending on high-quality healthcare, longevity, financial services, AI, and education. 2. The Victims will be people who rely entirely on a salary without any asset exposure. (Note: a car is not an asset, and a home with a big debt isn't one either). Cash holders who don't know how to invest will also be left behind. 3.Portfolio Allocation: To hedge against inflation, Gold and Bitcoin (BTC) should be considered as part of a diversified portfolio. For everything else, the U.S. stock market is the place to be—if you know how to pick the right businesses. That's why this is a skill everyone needs to learn!
AI + Investing: The Survival Guide
AI is going to reinvent virtually every customer experience, every industry, every job you know. The traditional career is dead, the traditional job is dying, however the opportunities being created right now are massive — but they're not meant for everyone. Most people won't even know where to look. The more the society goes bullish on AI, it's actually quietly going bearish on human intelligence. And that gap is only going to widen. Most people will feel the next several years very challenging, but a select few will see unprecedented growth. Who are they? And what are the few things you actually need to focus on? 1. Develop unshakeable mental strength and great health. Mindset, discipline and character, because physical and spiritual things cannot be replicated by any model. 2. Use AI to solve real business problems, transform a legacy operations or build an AI-native business entirely new. This is the second 'Computer Revolution,' every operational benchmark is being erased; the future belongs to the architects who can establish the new standard. 3. Financial literacy and investing effectively is no longer optional—it’s a survival skill. You have to make your money work for you. We are shifting into an era where managing your assets is more important than earning a salary, because you won't have a salary. Investing isn't just something you do on the side anymore; it’s becoming the most important job you’ll ever have. True security lies in ownership, and the core of investing is owning great businesses. If you’re serious about exiting 9-5, having a plan B, building real wealth and reclaiming your freedom in the age of AI, my 6-week investing program is the blueprint you’ve been looking for. Stay open-minded, Create your own future. Drop me a DM and let’s have a quick chat. Wendy
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