https://arxiv.org/pdf/2603.20617

This video: https://www.youtube.com/live/aijrM_-xV2Q?si=xm6c_-lJ6nVjecmj Argues (AI Summary:) China is suffering a fiscal crisis after the April 28 Politburo meeting. Facing plunging land revenues, massive debt, weak demand, and no major stimulus, Beijing shifts to extraction: criminalizing private-sector actions, expanding financial surveillance and exit bans, taxing offshore wealth, and auditing religious institutions. Lei warns these moves signal deepening systemic control and economic strain. Worth watching. The details it highlights weren’t captured by the summary, and some are pretty significant.

Just brainstorming here because I am just wondering what financial decision to make next, and I feel like I am turning into an economist here... I know conspiracy theories aren’t allowed, but just think critically with me. In terms of global economics, I want to ask this question thought possible credible threat theories. What does it do to asset allocation? I am having dreams trying to connect these dots. A few years ago, we conveniently had the pandemic, which fractured the supply chain. Last year, we had the bird flu, which, through the rumor mill, never really wasn’t an issue. So food cost intention pushed through the roof. Now, we have oil being fractured through war. This raises the question of what would have happened to stocks if this hadn’t occurred. I think what next possible credible threat theory? If credit is tight and people are living off of credit, what is being suppressed for economic benefit for the elite? Intentionally pushing prices higher for longer. Also, economically, I should really I ask AI, but I was hoping you all can help me brainstorm this theory. I just want to get ahead, tired of being left behind …..

As we discuss about how housing becomes a luxury in an economy thats diving into luxuries, I keep seeing everyone frame the problem as "renting vs buying". But for me, all I see is luxury rentals and the real comparison should be having your own housing vs living with family like they do in other countries that have great inequality. In practice thats what I see: more people living with parents/in-laws after marriage, living "in the basement" after college, etc. So why are we still comparing rent cost to mortgages, according to the Cantillon effect hasnt that become redundant?

Breaking down the current events through the lens of the Credible Threat Theory