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This is an amazing tool for finding the real rate of interest. Adjustments to the neutral rate, the effective funds, and inflation expectations to determine the real rate , accommodating or restricting. https://codepen.io/Uneducated-Economist-/pen/ogBpjYv
Make Up Strategy, B.I S. 2020
Lots of good stuff warning us about the future inflation. ".. its not just raising inflation, uh," @16:55 (that stall was perfect), the whole video is good, although I haven't gone through it completely yet. https://youtu.be/0pV4zREaVQY?is=MENZFYriJDd6brnb
Current Corporate Inflation Expectations US & Canada
Beyond consumer expectations, I think it's also worth considering corporate inflation expectations. Corporate inflation expectations result in corporate decision making and that decision making results in spending, or not, which impacts hiring/wages/price setting/expansion/etc - which ultimately impact consumer inflation expectations. Anyone for some trickle-down inflation expectations? Interestingly - despite Canada's "easier" real rate environment, it is the US where corporate spending is more obvious (sector dependant).
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Cantillon said it best
Thanks Simon, thanks Cantillon haha
Cantillon said it best
Neo-Fisherism under current conditions
An economy can experience higher nominal rates while real policy conditions remain accommodative. The concern is that small rate increases coexist with persistent inflation expectations, allowing a higher-rate, higher-inflation configuration to endure without an announced regime change. In short, this can be explained through insufficient real tightening. Nominal rate hikes fail to outrun inflation expectations or an increase in neutral rates, and behave as an inflation/stimulating backstop (neo-fisherian) rather than inflation reducing or restrictive policy.
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Breaking down complex economic topics for the average everyday person to internalize to make the best decision for themselves and their families.
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