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A+ Setups -Market Analysis/Q&A is happening in 6 days
👀 TFZ PREMARKET UPDATE | Tuesday, August 18, 2026
🌎 MARKET CONTEXT The market is showing a clear rotation this morning. SPY – $769.45 QQQ – $720.60 VIX – 15.76 Technology and AI/semiconductors are showing broad premarket weakness, while defense and energy are showing relative strength. Higher oil prices and geopolitical concerns surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz remain important catalysts. Higher Treasury yields are also adding pressure to growth and technology stocks. AI / semiconductor weakness includes NVDA, AMD, MU, AVGO, MRVL, ARM, VRT and several infrastructure names. Defense and energy are showing better relative strength, with LMT, NOC, GD, RTX, CVX and OXY among the names holding up better. The important question at the open is whether technology weakness continues or buyers step in and reclaim the premarket selloff. 📊 VIX GAME PLAN Current VIX: 15.76 🟢 Under 16 = Buyers In Control 🟡 16–18 = Caution 🔴 Above 18 = Sellers In Control VIX remains slightly below 16, so buyers technically still have the advantage. However, we are very close to the caution zone. A move above 16 combined with QQQ and semiconductor breakdowns would strengthen the bearish setup. A VIX rejection below 16 combined with QQQ reclaiming structure could create a reversal opportunity. 🟢 CALL WATCHLIST AAPL – $307.19 CALLS: Mega-cap relative strength Reclaim: $308 Targets: $311 / $314 / $317 Game Plan: AAPL is showing relative strength compared with the broader technology pullback. Favor calls only after $308 is reclaimed and held. MSFT – $483.30 CALLS: Mega-cap relative strength Reclaim: $485 Targets: $490 / $495 / $500 Game Plan: MSFT is one of the stronger mega-cap technology names this morning. Look for continued strength if QQQ stabilizes and VIX remains below 16. PLTR – $172.55 CALLS: AI / relative strength Reclaim: $173 Targets: $176 / $180 / $185 Game Plan: PLTR is holding up better than much of the AI group. Favor continuation if $173 is reclaimed while broader AI weakness begins stabilizing. LMT – $599.00
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👀 TFZ PREMARKET UPDATE | Tuesday, August 18, 2026
📰 TFZ MORNING CATALYST REPORT | Tuesday, August 18, 2026
🌎 MAJOR MARKET CATALYSTS • MARKET RESET: Wall Street enters Tuesday after extending its pullback Monday. The S&P 500 fell about 0.5% to 7,745.06, the Dow declined about 0.5% to 53,459.78, the Nasdaq slipped roughly 0.3% to 26,644.91, and the Russell 2000 declined about 0.4%. Rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns outweighed strength in parts of the semiconductor trade. Source: AP — How major U.S. indexes fared Monday • OIL + IRAN / HORMUZ: Energy remains in focus after geopolitical risk intensified. Brent crude settled at $90.87, while WTI climbed to $84.50 as stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations and reduced shipping through the Strait of Hormuz increased supply concerns. Source: Reuters — Oil rises as Iran tensions stoke supply concerns • AI + MEMORY KEEP LEADING: The broader market declined Monday, but money continued rotating into AI infrastructure, memory and semiconductor names. SNDK surged 8.9%, while MU, MRVL and AMAT posted strong gains. The PHLX Semiconductor Index gained about 1.6%, showing clear relative strength. Source: Barron’s — Monday stock movers • SNDK MOMENTUM: SNDK finished around $1,786.85, up 8.9%, after breaking above its 50-day moving average and a roughly two-month downtrend. The stock enters Tuesday as one of the market’s strongest momentum names. Source: Investor’s Business Daily — SNDK leads the S&P 500 • RDDT INDEX DAY: Reddit officially enters the S&P 500 before Tuesday’s opening bell. Index-tracking funds must adjust their holdings to reflect the new constituent, keeping RDDT at the center of institutional-flow attention. Source: Wall Street Journal — Reddit S&P 500 inclusion • RETAIL TAKES CENTER STAGE: Home Depot reports Tuesday morning, followed by Target and Lowe’s Wednesday and Walmart Thursday. After July retail sales unexpectedly weakened, these reports will test consumer spending, housing-related demand and corporate guidance. Source: Reuters — Retail earnings move into focus • FED MINUTES WEDNESDAY: The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its July meeting Wednesday. Investors will be watching the internal debate surrounding inflation and interest rates after three officials favored a rate increase at that meeting.
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📰 TFZ MORNING CATALYST REPORT | Tuesday, August 18, 2026
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👀 TFZ WATCHLIST | Monday, August 17, 2026
🌎 MARKET CONTEXT U.S. futures are mixed but leaning toward tech this morning. Nasdaq futures are outperforming as AI, memory and semiconductor names regain momentum. This week’s major themes: 🤖 AI + Memory 💾 Semiconductors 🛢️ Energy 🛒 Retail Earnings 🏦 Fed Minutes 👀 RDDT S&P 500 Inclusion 📊 VIX GAME PLAN Current VIX: 15.07 🟢 Under 16 = Buyers In Control 🟡 16–18 = Caution 🔴 Above 18 = Sellers In Control With VIX currently below 16, the volatility backdrop still favors buyers, but we want price confirmation after the open. 🟢 CALL WATCHLIST NVDA – $226.49 CALLS: Above $228 Reclaim: $230 Targets: $233 / $236 / $240 Game Plan: AI momentum remains intact. Let NVDA confirm above the morning range rather than chasing the open. MU – $997.50 CALLS: Above $1,000 Reclaim: $1,005 Targets: $1,020 / $1,035 / $1,050 Game Plan: Memory remains one of the strongest themes. Watch for continued institutional momentum and confirmation after the open. SNDK – $1,697.00 CALLS: Above $1,700 Reclaim: $1,710 Targets: $1,730 / $1,750 / $1,780 Game Plan: Strong momentum, but SNDK is extended. Confirmation matters more than chasing. AMZN – $266.30 CALLS: Above $267 Reclaim: $268 Targets: $270 / $272 / $275 Game Plan: Look for continuation alongside QQQ and broader mega-cap technology strength. RDDT – Friday Close $178.09 CALLS: Continuation above Friday’s high / opening range Targets: Allow Monday’s price action to establish fresh levels. Game Plan: Special catalyst watch. RDDT is scheduled to join the S&P 500 before Tuesday’s open, creating an institutional-flow catalyst. 🔴 PUT WATCHLIST TSLA – $339.95 PUTS: Below $338 Lose: $335 Targets: $332 / $328 / $325 Game Plan: Premarket weakness makes TSLA one of the cleaner downside watches if QQQ weakens. AMD – $510.36 PUTS: Below $508 Lose: $505 Targets: $500 / $495 / $490 Game Plan: Relative weakness despite semiconductor strength makes AMD interesting. Avoid forcing puts if AMD begins participating with NVDA and MU. META – $586.55
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👀 TFZ WATCHLIST | Monday, August 17, 2026
📰 TFZ CATALYST REPORT FOR Monday, August 17, 2026
🌎 MAJOR MARKET CATALYSTS • MARKET SETUP: U.S. stock futures are starting the week relatively quiet. Sunday evening, Dow and S&P 500 futures were roughly flat while Nasdaq-100 futures were slightly positive. The S&P 500 finished last week up about 0.4%, the Nasdaq gained 0.1%, while the Dow fell about 0.6%. Source: https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-futures-trading-sunday-8dfe9f84 • FRIDAY’S RESET: U.S. stocks pulled back Friday after the S&P 500 reached a record close Thursday. The S&P 500 fell about 0.2%, the Nasdaq declined roughly 0.4%, and the Dow slipped about 0.1%. Despite Friday’s pullback, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq still finished higher for the week. Source: https://www.investopedia.com/stock-market-today-dow-jones-s-and-p-500-08142026-12059818 • CONSUMER WARNING: July U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6% month over month. The weaker report puts consumer strength back under the microscope heading into a week dominated by major retail earnings. Source: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/stock-market-update-open • RETAIL EARNINGS WEEK: Home Depot reports Tuesday. Target and Lowe’s report Wednesday, while Walmart reports Thursday. These reports should give the market another important look at consumer spending, pricing pressure and household demand. Source: https://www.barrons.com/articles/walmart-target-home-depot-stoicks-fed-minutes-8143d1aa • FED WATCH: The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its July meeting Wednesday. Investors will be looking for additional clues about inflation, interest rates and how divided policymakers are about the Fed’s next move. Source: https://www.ft.com/content/f9eb497c-f8e0-4cba-8edc-619e55b74a59
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