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TFZ Morning Catalyst Report — Wednesday, November 11, 2026
📊 PREMARKET FUTURES 🟢 Dow E-minis +15 pts (+0.03%) 🟢 S&P 500 E-minis +55.75 pts (+0.74%) 🟢 Nasdaq 100 E-minis +465.25 pts (+1.67%) 🧠 WHAT THIS TELLS US Futures are bouncing after Tuesday's hot-CPI selloff — the Nasdaq is leading on CoreWeave's earnings beat and an Nvidia bounce. But the Fed repricing is real: a December hike is now a near-certainty, and the only question is 25 or 50 basis points. Today is Veterans Day — stocks trade normal hours, the bond market is closed, and no major U.S. data is due, so the tape trades on earnings and headlines. 📊 TUESDAY'S CLOSE — NOVEMBER 10, 2026 Hot CPI and Waller's 50-point warning knocked stocks lower, but the damage was contained — the equal-weight S&P barely moved, and 6 of 11 sectors finished higher. 🔴 Dow 52,231.89 (-0.30%, -157.86 pts) 🔴 S&P 500 7,520.93 (-0.38%, -29.01 pts) 🔴 Nasdaq Composite 25,065.87 (-0.74%, -187.26 pts) 🔴 Nasdaq-100 27,740.80 (-0.60%) 🔴 Russell 2000 2,821.38 (-0.68%) 🟢 VIX 19.44 (-2.41%) — fear eased, but still above our calm level of 16 🔴 10-Year Yield 4.98% (+12 bp — briefly above 5%) 🔴 WTI Crude $86.04 (-0.9%) 🔴 Brent Crude $91.49 (-1.2%) — dipped below $90 intraday, first time since August 🔴 Gold (Dec futures) $4,038.70 (-1.84%) 🔥 MAJOR MARKET CATALYSTS 1️⃣ HOT CPI — INFLATION BEATS, DECEMBER HIKE NOW A NEAR-CERTAINTY October CPI rose 0.4% month over month (vs. 0.3% expected; September +0.6%), and core CPI rose 0.3% (vs. 0.2% expected) — the third straight month at 0.3%. The unrounded core reading was 0.297% — right on Fed Governor Waller's line: he said a 0.3% core print means a 50 basis point December hike "should be considered." The 2-year Treasury yield jumped about 18 bp to 4.74%, and the 10-year briefly traded above 5% before closing at 4.98%. Markets now price a December hike as a near-certainty — about a 90% chance of 25 bp and about 10% for 50 bp (CME FedWatch). Goldman Sachs added a third 25 bp hike to its forecast for March 2027, taking the peak rate to 4.25–4.50%.
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TFZ Morning Catalyst Report — Wednesday, November 11, 2026
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☀️ Grand Rising, Trade From Zero Family! Live Trading Thursday & Friday!
🔥 TFZ Midday Update — Tuesday, November 10, 2026
📊 Midday update — two names from today's watchlist: • NVDA: shareholders filed a class-action lawsuit Monday, alleging NVDA and Jensen Huang concealed his relationship with a suspected Chinese spy and the national-security risks. NVDA fell 4.3% Monday to $178.67 (~$190B wiped). This is on top of the board's independent probe. NVDA stays a put only below $170.24 — confirm first. • OXY: Q3 EPS $1.91 vs $1.46 expected — a ~30% beat — but revenue $6.77B vs ~$6.82B expected, a small miss. That earnings beat is a caution flag for the OXY put — wait for the confirmed break. ⚠️ Educational purposes only — we don't guess, we confirm.
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🔥 TFZ Midday Update — Tuesday, November 10, 2026
TFZ Watchlist — Tuesday, November 10, 2026
Good morning, TFZ family! ☀️ Monday was the best day since April. The S&P jumped 2.35%, the Nasdaq jumped 2.74%, and chips ripped. But October CPI just came in HOT at 8:30 a.m. — headline +0.4% and core +0.3%, both above forecast — and Waller is now talking about a possible 50bp December hike. Premarket has flipped lower across the board. Today is a confirm-first day, not a chase day. Let the open tell you the truth. 📊 MARKET CONTEXT 🟢 S&P 500 — 7,549.94 (+2.35% Monday, best day since April 8) 🟢 Nasdaq Composite — 25,253.14 (+2.74% Monday) 🟢 Dow — 52,389.75 (+2.15% Monday, +1,104.02 points) 🟢 Russell 2000 — 2,840.81 (+3.15% Monday) 🟢 SPY — $752.69 Monday close (range $741.03–$755.42) 🟢 QQQ — $679.35 Monday close (range $662.02–$682.48) 🟢 IWM — $282.51 Monday close (range $276.81–$283.79) Premarket this morning (8:53 a.m. ET): SPY near $748.51 (-0.56%), QQQ $671.47 (-1.16%), IWM $280.34 (-0.77%). Futures after the CPI print: Nasdaq-100 -0.8%, Dow +0.1%, S&P 500 -0.3%. October CPI came in hot — headline +0.4% vs +0.3% expected, core +0.3% vs +0.2% expected, the third straight month at +0.3% for core. No 12-month rate was published. Fed Governor Waller said this morning he leans toward a 25bp December hike even if CPI improves, and if core came in at +0.3% or higher, a 50bp hike "should be considered." December hike odds were about 84–85% before the print. Oil is falling again — WTI near $85.12 (-1.99%), Brent below $90. Gold is near $4,120. The 10-year yield is 4.89%. Monday's rally was broad — all 11 sectors higher, Industrials leading — but the bond market never bought it, and now hot CPI is testing the bounce. The Dow is holding up best. The Nasdaq is fading hardest. 📊 VIX GAME PLAN 🟢 VIX closed Monday at 19.92, down 22.31% (fear easing hard after Friday's 25.64). Premarket VIX was near 19.99, up about 0.35% at 7:23 a.m. ET — before the CPI print. ✅ Below 16 = calm, Ron's calm level — cleaner follow-through for calls ⚠️ Between 16 and 19.92 = still above calm, trade small and only confirmed setups
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TFZ Watchlist — Tuesday, November 10, 2026
TFZ Morning Catalyst Report — Tuesday, November 10, 2026
📊 PREMARKET FUTURES 🟢 Dow E-minis +205 pts (+0.39%) 🟢 S&P 500 E-minis +12.5 pts (+0.17%) 🔴 Nasdaq 100 E-minis -3 pts (-0.01%) Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-dow-futures-climb-oil-slide-lifts-sentiment-2026-11-10/ 🧠 WHAT THIS TELLS US Futures are mixed and mostly flat as traders wait for the 8:30 a.m. CPI report. The Dow is leading, the Nasdaq is pausing after Monday's big rebound, and oil keeps sliding. Today is all about inflation — the CPI print decides whether the rebound runs or stalls. 📊 MONDAY'S CLOSE — NOVEMBER 9, 2026 Monday was the market's best day since April — all three major indexes up more than 2%, all 11 sectors higher, and fear falling hard. 🟢 Dow 52,389.75 (+2.15%, +1,104.02 pts) 🟢 S&P 500 7,549.94 (+2.35%, +173.08 pts) 🟢 Nasdaq Composite 25,253.14 (+2.74%, +673.71 pts) 🟢 Nasdaq-100 27,907.62 (+3.40%) 🟢 Russell 2000 2,840.81 (+3.15%) 🟢 VIX 19.92 (-22.31%) — fear fell hard, but still above our calm level of 16 🔴 10-Year Yield 4.86% (+0.5 bp — little changed) 🔴 WTI Crude $86.85 (-4.38%) 🔴 Brent Crude $92.57 (-5.85%) 🟢 Gold (Dec futures) $4,147.10 (+1.77%) Source: https://marketbriefer.com/the-global-close-november-9-2026-oil-slide-and-chip-rebound-power-best-day-since-april/ 🔥 MAJOR MARKET CATALYSTS 1️⃣ CPI DAY — OCTOBER INFLATION AT 8:30 A.M. ET The October CPI report lands at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists expect headline CPI up 0.3% month over month (after +0.6% in September) and core CPI up 0.2% (after +0.3%). The BLS will NOT publish 12-month inflation rates this time — October 2025 data was never collected during the government shutdown. This is the last inflation reading before the Fed's December 8–9 meeting. Why It Matters: A cool print keeps the rebound alive. A hot print puts a bigger December hike on the table.
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TFZ Morning Catalyst Report — Tuesday, November 10, 2026
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