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HOW I AM TRADING TODAY 4/30
Market Type: • VIX 18.27 = CHOP 👉 Means: * We want HIGH DELTA (fast movers) * Avoid slow contracts (theta will kill you) * Quick in → quick out ⸻ 💰 BEST CONTRACT STRATEGY (TODAY) 🔥 RULES (NON-NEGOTIABLE) ✅ Delta: .60 – .75 (moves fast) ✅ Expiration: 0DTE or 1DTE ONLY ✅ Avoid deep OTM (lottery = low win rate) ✅ Enter ONLY on confirmation candle ⸻ 🚀 TOP 3 PLAYS (FOCUS HERE) ⸻ 🥇 NVDA (PRIMARY MONEY MAKER) Current: 210.60 🎯 CONTRACTS * Calls: 212 / 215 * Puts: 208 / 205 * Exp: 0DTE or next day ⚡ EXECUTION (2m / 5m) ⬆️ CALL SETUP: 1. Break + HOLD 212 2. Pullback holds above VWAP 3. 2m/5m bullish engulfing or 2-1-2 ➡️ Entry: Break of confirmation candle ➡️ Target: 215 → 218 ➡️ Stop: Break of VWAP / structure ⸻ ⬇️ PUT SETUP: 1. Lose 208 2. Reject VWAP 3. Lower high forms ➡️ Entry: Breakdown candle ➡️ Target: 205 → 200 ⸻ 🥈 TSLA (VOLATILITY PLAY) Current: 371.51 🎯 CONTRACTS * Calls: 375 / 380 * Puts: 365 / 360 ⚡ EXECUTION ⬆️ CALLS: • Clean break 375 + volume spike • Enter on continuation candle ➡️ Target: 380 → 385 ⬇️ PUTS: • Breakdown 365 • Retest fails ➡️ Target: 360 → 350 ⚠️ TSLA TIP: Moves FAST → take profits QUICK (don’t hold greed) ⸻ 🥉 AMD (CLEAN STRUCTURE) Current: 339.67 🎯 CONTRACTS * Calls: 345 / 350 * Puts: 335 / 330 ⚡ EXECUTION ⬆️ CALLS: • Break 345 • Hold above VWAP ➡️ Target: 350 → 360 ⬇️ PUTS: • Lose 335 • Lower high forms ➡️ Target: 330 → 320 ⸻ 💎 BONUS (SMALL ACCOUNT SNIPERS) PLTR – 139 🎯 Contracts: * Calls: 142 / 145 * Puts: 135 / 132 👉 Best for momentum breakouts ⸻ SOFI – 15.71 🎯 Contracts: * Calls: 16 * Puts: 15 👉 Cheap, slower → wait for CLEAN break ⸻ 🧠 ENTRY CONFIRMATION (THIS IS THE DIFFERENCE) ✅ A+ ENTRY CHECKLIST Before ANY trade: ✔️ Above/below VWAP ✔️ 13 EMA > 20 EMA (for calls) ✔️ Volume spike ✔️ Candle pattern: * Bullish engulfing * 2-1-2 continuation * Strong breakout candle ⸻ ⏱️ TIMING STRATEGY 🕤 9:30–9:35 ❌ NO TRADE (fake moves) 🕤 9:35–10:00 ✅ BEST WINDOW (real setups form)
Is the IPO boom a warning sign for stocks?
Investing.com: A wave of mega IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, alongside fresh share sales from AI hyperscalers, could pose a significant test for the stock market, according to Capital Economics, which warned that surging equity supply has historically coincided with the late stages of major equity booms. Access in-depth analyst research and stock-level insights only on InvestingProMarkets Economist Joe Maher told clients in a note that gross equity issuance "has tended to pick up markedly during stock market booms," with the peak of these booms closely coinciding with rare periods of positive net equity issuance in the U.S. Data released this week showed net equity issuance by U.S. non-financial corporations turned positive in the first quarter of 2026 for the first time since the second quarter of 2021. SpaceX is set to raise approximately $80 billion in its IPO, the largest on record. Combined with Anthropic and OpenAI, which are expected to list later this year, the three firms are reportedly seeking to raise around $200 billion, "enough to make 2026 a record year for US IPOs." Capital Economics noted that only around 5% of SpaceX's shares will be floated initially, with similar free floats mooted for Anthropic and OpenAI. If those free floats were to rise to 25%, the firm estimates "that could mean an additional ~$750bn of equity supply" as lockup periods expire. The firm also flagged Alphabet's plan to raise $80 billion through share sales, with reports suggesting Meta may follow, as hyperscalers seek alternatives to debt-funded capital spending. Capital Economics concluded that "recent history suggests surging share issuance tends to be a sign that the end to an equity boom is a matter of months not years away," noting gross issuance peaked broadly in line with the stock market at the end of the last three major booms.
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Is the IPO boom a warning sign for stocks?
🚨 TFZ 6/11 WATCHLIST 🚨
MARKET CONTEXT Markets are opening under pressure after yesterday’s selling continued overnight. ⚠️ Key concern: VIX is sitting around 21.25, which moves us from a bullish environment into a higher-volatility environment. This doesn’t mean the bull market is over. It means: ✅ Expect larger moves ✅ Expect more fake breakouts ✅ Wait for confirmation ✅ Size down if necessary The strongest names will be the ones that reclaim levels first after the opening volatility. VIX ANALYSIS VIX — 21.25 🔴 Above 20 = Elevated Risk 🔴 Expect larger intraday swings 🔴 Momentum favors patience ⚠️ If VIX falls back under 20: 🟢 Bullish momentum can quickly return TFZ GAME PLAN ✅ Wait 5-15 minutes after open ✅ Let leaders reclaim levels ✅ Don’t chase opening candles ✅ Focus on relative strength ✅ Trade confirmation, not prediction SPY / QQQ SPY — 729.05 🟢 CALLS If SPY reclaims premarket highs and holds: Target → 732 → 735 → 738 🔴 PUTS If SPY loses 726: Target → 722 → 718 QQQ — 699.90 🟢 CALLS If QQQ reclaims 702: Target → 707 → 712 🔴 PUTS If QQQ loses 696: Target → 690 → 685 MAG 7 / LARGE ACCOUNT WATCHES NVDA — 201.59 🟢 CALLS If NVDA reclaims 204: Target → 208 → 212 🔴 PUTS If NVDA loses 199: Target → 195 TSLA — 385.41 🟢 CALLS If TSLA reclaims 390: Target → 400 🔴 PUTS If TSLA loses 380: Target → 370 META — 571.00 🟢 CALLS If META reclaims 575: Target → 585 → 595 🔴 PUTS If META loses 565: Target → 555 AMD — 460.32 🟢 CALLS If AMD reclaims 465: Target → 475 🔴 PUTS If AMD loses 450: Target → 440 PLTR — 129.52 ⚠️ Watching closely after weakness. 🟢 CALLS If PLTR reclaims 132: Target → 136 → 140 🔴 PUTS If PLTR loses 127: Target → 122 AI / INFRASTRUCTURE / SEMIS VRT — 287.00 🟢 CALLS If VRT reclaims 290: Target → 300 → 310 🔴 PUTS If VRT loses 282: Target → 275 CRWV — 93.90 🟢 CALLS If CRWV reclaims 96: Target → 100 🔴 PUTS If CRWV loses 92: Target → 88 ORCL — 184.44 ⚠️ Earnings momentum still in play. 🟢 CALLS If ORCL reclaims 187: Target → 192 → 200 🔴 PUTS If ORCL loses 180: Target → 175 ANET — 153.35
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🚨 TFZ CATALYST WATCHLIST – 6/9 🚨
TOP NEWS CATALYSTS ⭐ 10:00 AM – Existing Home Sales ⭐ 12:00 PM – EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook ⭐ 4:30 PM – API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks ⸻ 🏠 HOUSING / CONSTRUCTION 🥇 BLDR – Builders FirstSource 🥈 DHI – D.R. Horton 🥉 LEN – Lennar 🏅 PHM – PulteGroup 🏅 TOL – Toll Brothers 🏅 RKT – Rocket Companies 🏅 RDFN – Redfin 🏅 ITB – Housing ETF 🏅 XHB – Housing ETF ⸻ 🛢️ ENERGY / OIL (12:00 PM & 4:30 PM) 🥇 OXY 🥈 XOM 🥉 CVX 🏅 SLB 🏅 HAL 🏅 FANG 🏅 DVN 🏅 COP 🏅 APA 🏅 CTRA ⸻ 🚀 AI / SEMICONDUCTORS 🥇 NVDA 🥈 AVGO 🥉 AMD 🏅 SMCI 🏅 APLD 🏅 VRT 🏅 ARM 🏅 TSM ⸻ ⚛️ QUANTUM 🥇 QBTS 🥈 RGTI 🥉 IONQ 🏅 QUBT ⸻ 🛰️ SPACE / DEFENSE 🥇 ASTS 🥈 RKLB 🥉 PL 🏅 LUNR 🏅 BKSY ⸻ 💰 FINTECH / SMALL ACCOUNT 🥇 SOFI 🥈 IREN 🥉 HIMS 🏅 HOOD 🏅 AFRM ⸻ 📈 INDEX REACTION WATCH SPY QQQ IWM VIX ⸻ 🔥 TFZ A+ SETUPS (OVERALL) LARGE ACCOUNT 🥇 NVDA 🥈 PLTR 🥉 AVGO 🏅 BLDR 🏅 VRT ⸻ SMALL ACCOUNT 🥇 QBTS 🥈 RGTI 🥉 SOFI 🏅 IREN 🏅 ASTS ⸻ ⚡ NEWS-SPECIFIC SETUPS 10:00 AM Housing Data 🥇 BLDR 🥈 DHI 🥉 LEN 🏅 RKT ⸻ 12:00 PM Energy Outlook 🥇 OXY 🥈 XOM 🥉 CVX 🏅 SLB ⸻ 4:30 PM API Crude Oil Stocks 🥇 OXY 🥈 DVN 🥉 FANG 🏅 COP 🏅 APA ⸻ TFZ GAME PLAN ✅ Watch BLDR, DHI, LEN at 10:00 AM ✅ Watch OXY, XOM, CVX at 12:00 PM ✅ Watch OXY, DVN, FANG after 4:30 PM API data ✅ Primary focus remains NVDA, PLTR, QBTS, RGTI, SOFI, ASTS, and RKLB ✅ Let the news create the move, then wait for confirmation ✅ Trade the reaction, not the prediction 🎯 Highest Probability News Trades: BLDR → DHI → LEN → OXY → XOM 🎯 Highest Probability Overall Trades: NVDA → PLTR → QBTS → RGTI → SOFI → ASTS → RKLB → BLDR
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🚨 $200 CHALLENGE UPDATE 🚨
Follow the money 📈 Most people are still doubting… Meanwhile we’re executing. 💥 Student of the Week (so far): Demetrius 📊 Paper Trade → $2.58 → $8.03 💰 +211% gain And this was only DAY 2 of the challenge. Before you say “it’s just paper trading”… Good. That’s the point. Because if you can’t do it on paper… You won’t do it with real money. This is where: ✅ Skill gets built ✅ Discipline is developed ✅ Mistakes cost NOTHING Then we scale it. No guessing. No gambling. Just: • Structure • Patience • Execution 👀 And we’re just getting started… Most people skip this phase… and that’s why they lose. 🎯 Want to learn the RIGHT way first? Inside Trade From Zero we build consistency BEFORE capital. No hype. No shortcuts. Just education, discipline, execution. @Demetric Middleton
🚨 $200 CHALLENGE UPDATE 🚨
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