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👀 TFZ MAG 7 & SMALL ACCOUNT WATCHLIST | Wednesday, August 19, 2026
🌎 MARKET CONTEXT SPY – $770.89 QQQ – $721.56 VIX – 15.16 🟢 VIX remains under 16, which keeps buyers in control. SPY and QQQ are showing strength, but we still wait for confirmation before entering. 📊 VIX GAME PLAN Current VIX: 15.16 🟢 Under 16 = Buyers In Control 🟡 16–18 = Caution 🔴 Above 18 = Sellers In Control ⸻ 💎 MAG 7 WATCHLIST 🟢 NVDA – $221.77 CALLS: Semiconductor / AI strength Reclaim: $222 Targets: $225 / $228 / $230 PUTS: Lose $218 Targets: $215 / $212 / $210 Game Plan: One of the stronger Mag 7 names. Favor calls while momentum holds. 🟢 AMZN – $261.03 CALLS: Reclaim $262 Targets: $265 / $268 / $270 PUTS: Lose $258 Targets: $255 / $252 / $250 Game Plan: Strong momentum into the upper end of the range. 🟢 AAPL – $310.75 CALLS: Reclaim $312 Targets: $315 / $318 / $320 PUTS: Lose $308 Targets: $305 / $302 / $300 Game Plan: Buyers showing strength. Watch $312 confirmation. 🟢 META – $543.78 CALLS: Reclaim $545 Targets: $550 / $555 / $560 PUTS: Lose $540 Targets: $535 / $530 / $525 Game Plan: Choppy relative to the stronger Mag 7 names. Confirmation needed. 🟢 TSLA – $337.23 CALLS: Reclaim $340 Targets: $345 / $350 / $355 PUTS: Lose $334 Targets: $330 / $325 / $320 Game Plan: Momentum improving, but TSLA can move quickly. Don’t chase. 🟡 MSFT – $480.56 CALLS: Reclaim $483 Targets: $487 / $490 / $495 PUTS: Lose $478 Targets: $475 / $470 / $465 Game Plan: Relative weakness. Needs a reclaim before calls become attractive. 🔴 GOOGL – $342.80 CALLS: Reclaim $345 Targets: $348 / $350 / $355 PUTS: Lose $340 Targets: $337 / $335 / $330 Game Plan: One of the weaker Mag 7 names. Put bias below $340. ⸻ 💵 SMALL ACCOUNT WATCHLIST 🟢 CALL WATCH HOOD – $93.10 Reclaim: $94 Targets: $96 / $98 / $100 TEM – $56.94 Reclaim: $57 Targets: $59 / $61 / $63 IREN – $42.11 Reclaim: $42.50 Targets: $44 / $45.50 / $47 SOFI – $17.93 Reclaim: $18 Targets: $18.50 / $19 / $20 NVTS – $13.42 Reclaim: $13.50 Targets: $14 / $14.50 / $15 RCAT – $10.23 Reclaim: $10.30 Targets: $10.75 / $11.25 / $12
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👀 TFZ MAG 7 & SMALL ACCOUNT WATCHLIST | Wednesday, August 19, 2026
👀 TFZ WATCHLIST | Wednesday, August 19, 2026
🌎 MARKET CONTEXT U.S. futures are basically flat this morning after Tuesday’s sharp technology and AI selloff. Dow futures are slightly positive while Nasdaq futures are slightly negative, so we’re opening with a mixed / confirmation-first environment, not a clean risk-on tape. The biggest pressure remains in AI, semiconductors and memory. MU, SNDK, MRVL and other AI-hardware names were hit hard Tuesday, and several remain under pressure this morning. Energy and healthcare are showing better relative strength. Oil remains an important catalyst. Brent is around $92 and U.S. crude around $85 as Strait of Hormuz / Middle East tensions continue. The 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.70%, which remains a headwind for high-multiple growth stocks. The major scheduled catalyst comes later today with the July Federal Reserve meeting minutes. That means we could see a quieter/choppier morning followed by increased volatility when the Fed minutes hit. One major stock-specific catalyst: SK Hynix announced a 40 trillion won ($28.6B) share buyback and cancellation program, helping SKHY rebound despite broader memory weakness. Healthcare also has a major catalyst: Moderna’s personalized mRNA cancer vaccine combined with Merck’s Keytruda met key Phase 3 melanoma endpoints, sending MRNA dramatically higher premarket. 📊 VIX GAME PLAN Current VIX: ~15.84 🟢 Under 16 = Buyers In Control 🟡 16–18 = Caution 🔴 Above 18 = Sellers In Control VIX remains just below 16, but it has moved higher over the past several sessions. That puts us right near the TFZ caution line rather than in a strong risk-on environment. Key confirmation: If VIX pushes and holds above 16 while QQQ and semiconductors continue breaking support, puts gain confirmation. If VIX rejects 16 and starts fading while QQQ/NVDA reclaim morning resistance, be careful chasing yesterday’s bearish momentum. 🟢 CALL WATCHLIST SKHY – ~$167 area CALLS: $28.6B share-buyback catalyst Reclaim: $168 Targets: $172 / $176 / $180
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👀 TFZ WATCHLIST | Wednesday, August 19, 2026
📰 TFZ MORNING CATALYST REPORT | Wednesday, August 19, 2026
🌎 MAJOR MARKET CATALYSTS • FED MINUTES AT 2:00 PM ET: The biggest scheduled macro catalyst today is the release of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes. Traders will be looking for clues on inflation concerns, the rate path, and how policymakers view the recent rise in longer-term borrowing costs. Futures are relatively steady ahead of the release, with the market attempting to stabilize after Tuesday’s technology-led selloff. Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-steady-after-tech-slump-investors-focus-middle-east-tensions-2026-08-19/ • BOND YIELDS REMAIN A MAJOR MARKET DRIVER: The recent global bond selloff has eased somewhat, but yields remain elevated. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.69%, while the 30-year remained near 5.27%. High long-term yields can pressure expensive growth and technology stocks because future earnings are discounted at higher rates. Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-19/ • IRAN / STRAIT OF HORMUZ + OIL: Geopolitical risk remains elevated as hopes for a quick resolution with Iran fade. Brent crude is trading around $91 per barrel and has risen for a fourth consecutive session. Higher energy prices can support oil producers while simultaneously increasing inflation concerns for the broader market. Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-08-19/ • SEMICONDUCTOR RESET: Tuesday’s biggest pressure came from technology and semiconductors. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped nearly 5%, while names including Nvidia, Marvell and Intel were hit as rising yields pressured high-valuation growth stocks. Chips are showing signs of stabilization this morning, but this remains one of the market’s most important battlegrounds.
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📰 TFZ MORNING CATALYST REPORT | Wednesday, August 19, 2026
📰 TFZ EVENING CATALYST REPORT | Tuesday, August 18, 2026
🌎 MAJOR MARKET CATALYSTS • MARKET CLOSE: Wall Street finished lower Tuesday as selling accelerated in technology and semiconductor stocks. The S&P 500 fell 0.7% to 7,691.76, the Nasdaq dropped 1.3% to 26,289.71, and the Dow declined 0.2% to 53,343.40. The Russell 2000 also fell 1.3%. Source: https://apnews.com/article/63300d6f51d4d27ce881cc6c11719171 • AI / SEMICONDUCTOR RESET: One of the biggest developments Tuesday was heavy selling across AI and semiconductor names. NVDA fell about 2.3%, MU dropped roughly 7%, and AVGO declined about 3.2% as investors questioned stretched valuations following the sector’s powerful run. Source: https://apnews.com/article/a805333e767251279e68e0686b28a8c9 • MEMORY SELLOFF: The recent memory trade experienced significant profit-taking. SNDK fell roughly 9% and MU declined about 7%, showing that institutional money is becoming more selective after the enormous run in AI infrastructure and memory stocks. Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/wsj-report-sends-memory-stocks-165044072.html • BOND YIELDS PRESSURE GROWTH: Long-term Treasury yields remain a major headwind for high-valuation growth stocks. The 30-year Treasury yield briefly reached approximately 5.34%, its highest level since 2007, while the 10-year yield traded around 4.7%. Higher yields can pressure technology valuations and increase financing costs for massive AI infrastructure projects. Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-08-18/ • OIL + MIDDLE EAST: Oil continued climbing as uncertainty surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz remained elevated. Brent crude settled around $91.02 while WTI finished near $84.94. Higher oil prices are keeping inflation concerns alive and helping maintain interest in select energy companies.
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📰 TFZ EVENING CATALYST REPORT | Tuesday, August 18, 2026
👀 TFZ PREMARKET UPDATE | Tuesday, August 18, 2026
🌎 MARKET CONTEXT The market is showing a clear rotation this morning. SPY – $769.45 QQQ – $720.60 VIX – 15.76 Technology and AI/semiconductors are showing broad premarket weakness, while defense and energy are showing relative strength. Higher oil prices and geopolitical concerns surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz remain important catalysts. Higher Treasury yields are also adding pressure to growth and technology stocks. AI / semiconductor weakness includes NVDA, AMD, MU, AVGO, MRVL, ARM, VRT and several infrastructure names. Defense and energy are showing better relative strength, with LMT, NOC, GD, RTX, CVX and OXY among the names holding up better. The important question at the open is whether technology weakness continues or buyers step in and reclaim the premarket selloff. 📊 VIX GAME PLAN Current VIX: 15.76 🟢 Under 16 = Buyers In Control 🟡 16–18 = Caution 🔴 Above 18 = Sellers In Control VIX remains slightly below 16, so buyers technically still have the advantage. However, we are very close to the caution zone. A move above 16 combined with QQQ and semiconductor breakdowns would strengthen the bearish setup. A VIX rejection below 16 combined with QQQ reclaiming structure could create a reversal opportunity. 🟢 CALL WATCHLIST AAPL – $307.19 CALLS: Mega-cap relative strength Reclaim: $308 Targets: $311 / $314 / $317 Game Plan: AAPL is showing relative strength compared with the broader technology pullback. Favor calls only after $308 is reclaimed and held. MSFT – $483.30 CALLS: Mega-cap relative strength Reclaim: $485 Targets: $490 / $495 / $500 Game Plan: MSFT is one of the stronger mega-cap technology names this morning. Look for continued strength if QQQ stabilizes and VIX remains below 16. PLTR – $172.55 CALLS: AI / relative strength Reclaim: $173 Targets: $176 / $180 / $185 Game Plan: PLTR is holding up better than much of the AI group. Favor continuation if $173 is reclaimed while broader AI weakness begins stabilizing. LMT – $599.00
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👀 TFZ PREMARKET UPDATE | Tuesday, August 18, 2026
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