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Trade From Zero

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👀 TFZ WATCHLIST | Friday, September 11, 2026
🌎 MARKET CONTEXT CPI IS OUT. • August CPI: +0.4% MoM • CPI: +3.4% YoY • Core CPI: +0.3% MoM / +2.4% YoY • SPY: $765.81 • QQQ: $716.93 • IWM: $291.10 • VIX: 15.93 • 10-Year Treasury remains elevated • Oil remains a major inflation/geopolitical factor • ORCL is showing post-earnings strength • AI / Semiconductors showing strong premarket momentum MAIN THEME: CPI did not deliver the major upside inflation surprise the market feared. SPY, QQQ and IWM are showing premarket strength while VIX has fallen below 16. That gives BUYERS the early advantage. But confirmation after the opening bell still matters. 🔗 Source: Reuters https://www.reuters.com/ BLS CPI https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ 📊 VIX GAME PLAN Current VIX: 15.93 🟢 Under 16 = Buyers In Control 🟡 16–18 = Caution 🔴 Above 18 = Sellers In Control VIX < 16 + QQQ holds/reclaims structure = FAVOR CALLS VIX > 16 + QQQ loses structure = FAVOR PUTS CURRENT READ: 🟢 BUYERS IN CONTROL VIX: 15.93 QQQ: $716.93 SPY: $765.81 If VIX stays below 16 and QQQ holds its premarket strength after the open, calls have the advantage. If VIX moves back above 16 while QQQ loses structure, become more cautious. 🟢 CALL WATCHLIST 1️⃣ ORCL — $164.79 Catalyst: Earnings + AI / Cloud growth Reclaim: $165 Targets: $168 $170 $175 GAME PLAN: $165 reclaim + VWAP hold + volume + QQQ strength = CALL CONFIRMATION 2️⃣ AMD — $512.80 Catalyst: AI / Semiconductor momentum Reclaim: $513 Targets: $518 $522 $528 GAME PLAN: $513 reclaim + semiconductor strength + QQQ holds + volume = CALL CONFIRMATION 3️⃣ META — $657.53 Catalyst: AI momentum + relative strength Reclaim: $658 Targets: $665 $670 $675 GAME PLAN: $658 reclaim + VWAP hold + QQQ strength = CALL CONFIRMATION 4️⃣ NVDA — $221.43 Catalyst: AI / Semiconductor momentum Reclaim: $222 Targets: $225 $228 $230 GAME PLAN: $222 reclaim + semiconductors remain strong + QQQ holds structure = CALL CONFIRMATION 5️⃣ AAPL — $326.75
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👀 TFZ WATCHLIST | Friday, September 11, 2026
📰 TFZ MORNING CATALYST REPORT | Friday, September 11, 2026
🌎 MAJOR MARKET CATALYSTS • CPI IS TODAY’S MAIN EVENT August Consumer Price Index data is due this morning and is likely to be the biggest market-moving event of the session. Economists expect headline CPI to rise about 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year, while core CPI is expected to increase about 0.2% for the month. The report could significantly change expectations for next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Source: Reuters — Gasoline likely to boost U.S. consumer prices in August • STOCK FUTURES ARE REBOUNDING At approximately 5:31 AM ET, Dow futures were up about 0.53%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.54%, and Nasdaq-100 futures were up 0.57%. The rebound comes after a difficult week for stocks as oil prices, inflation concerns and Treasury yields increased. Source: Reuters — Wall St futures recover as oil slides ahead of inflation test • OIL PULLS BACK, BUT REMAINS ABOVE $100 Brent crude fell more than 3% this morning to approximately $104 while WTI moved back toward $99-$100. Despite today’s decline, oil remains up more than 7% for the week after Middle East supply disruptions pushed Brent as high as $109.97. The pullback is helping futures this morning, but oil remains a major inflation risk. Source: Reuters — Oil set for weekly gain of over 7% on supply disruptions • MIDDLE EAST SUPPLY RISK IS FAR FROM OVER Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain restricted as tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue. Iran-aligned Houthi forces have also taken control of Yemen’s Mocha port, increasing concerns around Red Sea shipping. Any additional disruption to either shipping route could quickly put upward pressure back on crude and refined products. Source: Reuters — Oil set for weekly gain of over 7% on supply disruptions • DIESEL PRICES HIT A RECORD The U.S. national average diesel price moved above $6 per gallon Thursday for the first time on record as Middle East supply disruptions and Russian refinery outages tightened refined-product markets.
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📰 TFZ MORNING CATALYST REPORT | Friday, September 11, 2026
👀 TFZ WATCHLIST | Thursday, September 10, 2026
🌎 MARKET CONTEXT ⚠️ PPI IS OUT — inflation, oil, and Treasury yields remain the major market drivers. • August PPI: +0.4% MoM • PPI: +5.4% YoY • Core PPI: +0.2% MoM / +4.6% YoY • 10-Year Treasury Yield: ~4.87% • Brent crude: above $100 • Energy remains a relative-strength sector • Growth/technology remains sensitive to higher yields • CPI: Friday, September 11 • ORCL + ADBE earnings: after today's close • Fed decision: Wednesday, September 16 MAIN THEME: Higher wholesale inflation + elevated Treasury yields + oil above $100 creates a more difficult environment for growth stocks. Energy and defense remain areas of relative strength. ⚠️ Futures move quickly during premarket. Follow the live SPY/QQQ structure rather than relying on an earlier futures reading. 🔗 Sources: Reuters — U.S. Markets BLS — Producer Price Index 📊 VIX GAME PLAN Current VIX: ~16.5 🟢 Under 16 = Buyers In Control 🟡 16–18 = Caution 🔴 Above 18 = Sellers In Control VIX < 16 + QQQ holds/reclaims structure = FAVOR CALLS VIX > 16 + QQQ loses structure = FAVOR PUTS ⚠️ VIX is currently in the CAUTION ZONE. Don't force a direction. Let QQQ structure + VIX + VWAP + volume tell us whether buyers or sellers are gaining control. 🟢 CALL WATCHLIST 1️⃣ AVAV — ~$149.20 CATALYST: Earnings + defense/drone demand RECLAIM: $150 TARGETS: $153 $156 $160 GAME PLAN: Reclaim $150 + VWAP hold + volume = CALL CONFIRMATION AVAV has its own company catalyst and defense exposure, giving it an opportunity to show relative strength even if the broader market struggles. 2️⃣ CVX — ENERGY WATCH CATALYST: Oil above $100 + Middle East supply concerns RECLAIM: $214 TARGETS: $216 $218 $220 GAME PLAN: Reclaim $214 + VWAP hold + continued oil strength = CALL CONFIRMATION 3️⃣ XOM — ENERGY WATCH CATALYST: Oil above $100 + geopolitical/supply concerns TRIGGER: Reclaim Premarket High TARGETS: Next resistance Previous high Extension level GAME PLAN: Oil remains strong + XLE confirms + XOM reclaims PM High = CALL CONFIRMATION
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👀 TFZ WATCHLIST | Thursday, September 10, 2026
📰 TFZ MORNING CATALYST REPORT | Thursday, September 10, 2026
🌎 MAJOR MARKET CATALYSTS • PPI IS TODAY’S MAIN U.S. EVENT The August Producer Price Index is due this morning and could be one of the biggest market-moving events of the day. Investors are watching closely for signs that higher energy and input costs are working their way back into inflation. CPI follows Friday, making the next two sessions especially important for expectations surrounding next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-dow-futures-attempt-recovery-ahead-inflation-report-2026-09-10/ • STOCK FUTURES ATTEMPT A RECOVERY At approximately 5:09 AM ET, Dow futures were up about 0.21% and S&P 500 futures about 0.13%, while Nasdaq-100 futures were slightly lower. The S&P 500 and Dow are attempting to recover after three consecutive declining sessions, but investors remain cautious ahead of inflation data. Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-dow-futures-attempt-recovery-ahead-inflation-report-2026-09-10/ • OIL CONTINUES ABOVE $100 Brent crude was around $102.15 this morning while WTI traded near $97.50. Brent has gained nearly 30% from its early-August lows as escalating U.S.-Iran conflict and tanker attacks continue disrupting Middle East energy shipments. Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/brent-holds-above-100-tanker-attacks-deepen-supply-fear-2026-09-10/ • HORMUZ SUPPLY RISK REMAINS EXTREME Shipping disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz remain one of the biggest global market risks. The route historically handled roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas supply, while attacks on tankers and additional Houthi activity near Red Sea shipping routes are increasing concerns that disruptions could persist.
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📰 TFZ MORNING CATALYST REPORT | Thursday, September 10, 2026
👀 TFZ WATCHLIST | Wednesday, September 9, 2026
🌎 Market Context The premarket tone is risk-off. Around the latest readings, SPY -0.21%, QQQ -0.40%, DIA -0.39%, and IWM -0.37%. Reuters had Dow futures -0.74%, S&P futures -0.42%, and Nasdaq-100 futures -0.60% closer to the opening bell. The biggest catalyst is oil and the Middle East. Brent broke above $100 and WTI reached roughly $95.60 as attacks and supply disruptions intensified. The 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.81%, adding pressure to growth stocks. Friday’s CPI is the major macro event ahead of next week’s Fed meeting. Today’s major single-stock catalysts include META’s new Muse AI agent, DOW potentially exiting its $20 billion Saudi Aramco partnership, AAPL’s product event today, and post-earnings weakness in BRZE and TTAN. 📊 VIX Game Plan Current VIX: ~16.4 on the latest Cboe reading. 🟢 Under 16 = Buyers In Control 🟡 16–18 = Caution 🔴 Above 18 = Sellers In Control VIX < 16 + QQQ holds/reclaims structure = FAVOR CALLS VIX > 16 + QQQ loses structure = FAVOR PUTS Right now we’re in the caution zone, so confirmation matters more than trying to predict the opening direction. 🟢 CALL WATCHLIST 1. META — ~4%–5% higher premarket Reclaim: $640 Targets: $645 / $650 / $660 Catalyst: Muse AI agent launch Game Plan: $640 reclaim + VWAP hold + volume = CALL CONFIRMATION. META was up about 4.1%–4.5% pre-bell after Tuesday’s $613.48 close. 2. CVX — ~$210.72 Reclaim: $211 Targets: $213 / $215 / $218 Catalyst: Brent > $100 / Middle East supply disruption Game Plan: $211 reclaim + oil holds >$100 + energy strength = CALL CONFIRMATION. 3. OXY — ~$61.25 Reclaim: $61.30 Targets: $62 / $63 / $64 Catalyst: WTI ~$95–96 / Middle East escalation Game Plan: $61.30 reclaim + VWAP hold + XLE strength = CALL CONFIRMATION. 4. LMT — ~$539.14 Reclaim: $540 Targets: $545 / $550 / $555 Catalyst: Defense/geopolitical momentum Game Plan: $540 reclaim + volume = CALL CONFIRMATION. LMT was roughly +2.6% premarket from its prior close. 5. DOW — ~$30.60 Reclaim: $30.60 Targets: $31 / $31.50 / $32
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👀 TFZ WATCHLIST | Wednesday, September 9, 2026
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Ronald Chapman
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186 points to level up
@ronald-chapman-1626
I help everyday people learn how the stock market works. Founder of Trade From Zero — built for beginners. Real education and support.

Active 23h ago
Joined Dec 27, 2025
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