Jun 18 • General discussion
6/18 - Market Update: Iran Deal Done. Clarity Act Coming. What's next?
BTC: ~$63,900
ETH: ~$1,730
Big Events to tackle this week:
- Peace in Iran - Let the oil flow baby (we called it).
- Kevin Warsh told the markets to "figure it out yourselves" - hahaha. Good boy.
- BTC continues the up/down chop. - Still in the range. We expected this.
- Clarity Act - Passing/Signing on July 4th!
- Dollar Getting stronger - Bad for BTC but expected this summer.
Everything is moving fast just like we called but we're not out of the woods yet so here's my breakdown of how we're holding up so far and where we are going.
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Update on our thesis and our calls:
We've been tracking 3 conditions since April for a real rally to start:
#1 Iran War Resolution - Called it. The formal peace signing is tomorrow, June 19, in Switzerland. We said Trump would eventually give Iran a face-saving exit. That's exactly what played out. Oil has already started cooling toward $75/barrel, the domino we've been waiting on for months. This deal is too good for Iran to mess it up. I think it will stick this time more than not.
#2 CLARITY Act Still pending, now targeting a July 4 White House signing. We said summer catalyst. We're in the window for this to happen - it will pump crypto markets temporarily.
#3 DXY (Dollar Strength Index) We flagged this one as something to watch closely and we said the dollar would likely stay elevated or push higher because US oil companies were becoming the world's primary supplier with the Strait of Hormuz constrained. That played out. The dollar broke above 100 this week, hitting a 1-year high. No surprise. The dollar stays hard to get when there are no rate cuts and the world still needs US oil. We don't see this reversing until there's actual liquidity relief, which to be honest isn't coming soon (Q4).
✅ The Summer Chop Called it in April. Bitcoin ranging between roughly $60k and $68k this summer, exactly the frustrating sideways grind we described. We warned against chasing the May rally. We said $63k to $66k was the danger zone. Expect another potential rally if Clarity Act passes. Don't chase.
✅ Hidden Labor Market Pain We said the headline numbers looked clean but the real picture is messier. $1.3 trillion in credit card debt, people working 2-3 jobs, consumer sentiment under real pressure. Nothing has changed. The data just hasn't cracked publicly yet. It will.
Overall the macro picture we built from April onward is still intact. Remember we're waiting for the end of July, but the core thesis hasn't broken.
Okay so how do we digest all of this?
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What Just Happened With the Fed:
This is the most important thing to understand right now.
Kevin Warsh held his first FOMC meeting on June 17. Rates stayed at 3.50% to 3.75% — expected. What wasn't expected was the dot plot.
- 9 of 18 Fed officials now project a rate hike before year end. In March, that number was zero.
- The inflation forecast jumped from 2.7% to 3.6%.
- Warsh eliminated forward guidance entirely, shrunk the policy statement to 114 words, and didn't even submit his own dot projection.
Here's how I read it.
Warsh knows markets have been riding all-time highs on AI froth and peace deal optimism. His job right now is to slow that froth without causing a crash. The cleanest tool available? Words. Signal uncertainty. Markets price it in. Stocks cool. You get a correction without actually hiking.
That's exactly what happened. The dollar surged. Bitcoin dropped. Markets wobbled before recovering on Iran deal news.
The market is now pricing a possible hike. I think that's a mispricing. Here's why: the consumer is already cracking. Credit card debt at record highs, housing unaffordable for two generations, people working multiple jobs just to stay alive. this pressure will start to show up in Q3 earnings data before the end of the year. When it does, the conversation shifts fast from "hike" to "cut" as inflation cools.
On top of that... markets hate uncertainty. Warsh just created maximum uncertainty. But underneath it, the conditions for a rate cut by Q4 are quietly building. One cut is still more likely than zero by year end, even if nobody is pricing that right now.
And that's actually the opportunity in Bitcoin.
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The Path From Here
The oil-to-CPI sequence is still the key chain:
- Iran deal signed tomorrow
- Oil holds near $75 or lower
- July CPI print comes in cooler (mid-July)
- September FOMC dot plot gets revised
- Rate cut expectations return
- Dollar cools
- Bitcoin starts pricing easier liquidity
That's a 60-90 day window from today. In parallel, watch Q3 earnings. Airlines. Restaurants. Retailers. Credit card companies. If future guidance starts cooling, the labor market narrative shifts, and the Fed's problem changes from "inflation" to "growth." then this increases rate cut odds.
Let us know what you think! As always feel free to leave us any questions in the comments below!
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6/18 - Market Update: Iran Deal Done. Clarity Act Coming. What's next?
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