- BTC: ~$77,000–$80,000 - ETH: ~$1,600–$1,700 - 30 year fixed mortgage: ~6.6%–6.7% We haven't done a full crypto market update in a while but it was for good reason, we simply needed to hold and wait. We laid out our stage by stage expectations of what we thought was coming so we just needed to give it time to show us if we were right or not..… Well, Bitcoin is now pushing 80k... but the question now is, will this move last? To understand what’s going now, we have to revisit what we were talking about since before July. The sequence looked a little like this: Iran war not over → oil pressure high → inflation risk from oil prices → Fed stuck can't cut, can't raise → dollar strong → Bitcoin stuck → AI booming → Labor cracks (this was the chain) Bitcoin was stuck in that boring, uncomfortable $59k to $65k range. Oil was keeping inflation messy. The Fed had no clean room to cut. Mortgage rates were still painful. Regular people were getting squeezed. And crypto was feeling the pain first because crypto usually reacts before the rest of the market admits what is happening. We were waiting for the labor market to continue to show cracks and inflation to cool so that we could see potential rate cut news. So what changed? Why is bitcoin pushing up now without rate cut news? Well, the dollar got worse but lets expand on that because it's not the only thing.. because markets as a whole saw the U.S. government blink. They saw them step in and act to prevent the free market from pushing bond yields higher. But what does it mean? It means the dollar debasement trade is back. *(Debasement trade: If people think the dollar is being weakened, they move money into things that are harder to create like gold, bitcoin, silver.)* Bitcoin caught a bid that pushed it to 80k because they can smell potential money printing again and this recent move at the very least tells the market that this government will act if needed to rescue the markets. That is bullish for asset prices like stocks, gold and bitcoin. But it's not all sunshine and rainbows. We're going to see more pain before we get there because at the end of the day... something has to break before it can be fixed. This "something" is already starting to show.. the labor force participation rate is continuing to tank down to levels not seen since 1975!!! This is the percentage of civilians who are working or actively looking for work. See the chart below. This number also doesn't account for the people that never found work, they're called "discouraged workers"... they just drop off the list and never get counted again so it could be much worse.

It's not Bitcoin getting "Better" per se, it's your dollar getting "worse"... and this is really the story the of this current rally so let me explain. It really comes down to a question we get all the time "how is my money losing value when 1 dollar = 1 dollar?" and I'll explain below why this is the essential question and why it relates to today's topic. The simple answer to the question above is that the value is not in the money itself....yes 1 dollar will always be 1 dollar...but the real value is in the services, products, things that you buy with it. For example, a gallon of milk use to cost about $3.26 in 2010. Now in 2026, the National data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics places fresh whole milk at an all-time high of $4.32 per gallon. This means your dollar got weaker. It takes more dollars to buy 1 item because each dollar doesn't have the "strength" it use to have so you have to use more of them to buy the same item. It's not because milk got more nutritious or they added specks of edible gold into it. It's the same average gallon of milk, but let's use another example. A house worth $300,000 five years ago and sells for $380,000 today, why? It didn't get anything done to it. Same house with no renovations, same location, no additions, no upgrades. So what changed that increased it's price? The dollar got "weaker". Because we've been taught incorrectly how money works from the start, creating a new mental model of how it actually works is what trips people up. We're taught to think of a dollar as a fixed thing, like an inch or a pound. Twelve inches is always a foot. So when prices go up, it feels like the world got more expensive because it did but not the way you think because the "value" of the dollar is not a fixed thing. The dollar is more like a ruler that quietly shrinks every year. It still measures inches and centimeters, but every year you're not able to measure the same length as before. When your ruler shrinks, everything you measure with it looks bigger, even when nothing actually changed. This is really all a "weak dollar" means. Your dollar buys less than it used to. A "strong dollar" means it buys more. That's it....no mystery.

In our 10+ years of combined experience being in this industry, we watched good, capable and smart people miss the most important financial shift of our lifetime. Not because they weren't paying attention, but because the first thing they heard was "scam" and nobody gave them an honest explanation to learn otherwise. We're not here to push a "get rich" strategy, or convince you of doing anything. We're here because the biggest financial shift of our lifetime is unfolding right now. So we built the education we wish existed, compressed it into lessons that take minutes, and made sure you never have to feel like you're already too late. This is that place. _____________________________________________________________________ Here's where to begin: Step 1 — Download The Bitcoin Castle: Before you touch a single lesson, grab our free visual guide: The Bitcoin Castle: A Visual Beginner's Guide That Explains Why Bitcoin Has Value. It's the foundation everything else is built on. If you've ever struggled to understand why Bitcoin has value at all, this is the thing that makes it click. You'll find it waiting for you at the start of the Beginner Course below. Step 2 — Start the Beginner Crypto Crash Course: This is your home base. We built this course around the questions real beginners actually ask without the weird crypto jargon and techy explanations. By the time you finish, you'll understand what Bitcoin is, why it exists, why it matters, and why the timing of this conversation is important. Step 3 — Follow the Market Breakdowns: We publish regular news breakdowns and market analysis discussions so you can start connecting what you're learning to what's actually happening in the world right now. This is where the theory you're learning becomes real and you'll start to understand that Bitcoin isn't getting more valuable, it's your dollars getting weaker. ___________________________________________________________________ What's coming: The School of Bits is a growing school and this is just the beginning.