The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 44.8 this month. That's the lowest reading ever (since they started tracking it in 1952). Seventy-four years of data, and Americans have never felt worse about the economy than they do RIGHT NOW. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 just posted 8 straight winning weeks. So which one is telling the truth? Here's what's actually happening to everyday people: - 57% of Americans say high prices are eating into their personal finances (that number was 50% just last month) - Inflation expectations for the next 12 months climbed to 4.8% - Long-term inflation expectations hit 3.9%, highest in 7 months - Gas prices are surging because of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz - Lower-income households and folks without degrees are getting squeezed hardest And here's why Wall Street doesn't reflect any of that: - The S&P 500 is dominated by a handful of mega-cap tech companies riding AI hype - Stock prices reflect corporate earnings and global revenue, not what you're paying for eggs - The market can climb while your purchasing power shrinks, and that's been happening for years This is what inflation looks like when you zoom out. Wages chase prices but never quite catch up. People who own assets watch their portfolios grow. People who hold cash watch it slowly evaporate. And the gap keeps getting wider. This cash/fiat system is designed to make holders poor slowly overtime. And it's why you have to pay attention hard assets that cannot be printed into oblivion. So where does Bitcoin fit? It solves this exact problem. - There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin. No central bank prints more of it - Your dollars have lost roughly 25% of their purchasing power since 2020 - Bitcoin's monetary supply policy was written in code 17 years ago and hasn't changed since - It keeps running regardless of who's in the White House or what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz The stock market says things are great. Your grocery receipt says otherwise.

If there was ever some folks you'd expect to be winning at Bitcoin, it's the Trumps. Memecoins. NFTs. A whole presidential campaign wrapped in crypto promises. But Trump Media's Bitcoin bet tells a different story. Here's what happened: - Trump Media bought 11,542 Bitcoin at an average price of ~$118,000 per coin - Bitcoin dropped 35% to ~$77,000 - The company reported a $405.9 million net loss last quarter - Today, on-chain data shows they moved 2,650 BTC ($205 million) to exchange Crypto.com They appear to be selling. Into the dip lol. What went wrong? - They dumped $1.36 billion into Bitcoin at one price point near the peak - They had no strategy for a drawdown - When the price dropped, pressure to sell got louder than any conviction to hold Connections, influence, and hype don't protect you from bad strategy. The rules of Bitcoin don't care who you are. The fix is boring. And it works. It's called DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging). Here's how it works: - Buy a fixed dollar amount on a regular schedule (weekly, biweekly, monthly) - When the price is high, your fixed amount buys less Bitcoin - When the price is low, that same amount buys more - Over time, your average cost smooths out and you stop watching the daily chart If they had spread that $1.36 billion across 12 monthly purchases, their average cost might be closer to ~$92k per coin, not $118,000. And they'd still be holding. So here's the takeaway for regular folks: Bitcoin is healthy. Has been for 15 years and counting. The network processes a new block every 10 minutes, same as it did yesterday, last year, and the day Trump Media bought in. The code kept running. The strategy is what broke. DCA works because it takes your feelings out of the buy decision. And in Bitcoin, feelings are the most expensive line item on your balance sheet. Have you ever panic sold something and watched it recover? What did that teach you? Let us know. We wanna hear from you!

I Think The Bears Are Walking Into a Trap. Buckle in, this one is worth it. Bitcoin - $75,900 Ethereum - $2,070 For the last few weeks, I’ve been saying the move higher felt like temporary relief, not a full reset. Bitcoin bounced hard from the $60k range, Clarity Act headlines gave the market hope, and rumors of the Iran War winding down gave people a reason to get bullish again. But relief is not resolution. So yes, we were right to not fully trust the rally. The CLARITY Act still has not passed. The Iran War is still affecting oil and gas. The dollar is still strong. (actually going up still - temporarily) And Main Street (every day people) is still feeling way more pressure than the headlines want to admit. So let’s break down what I think is happening. ___________________________________________________________ 💠 #1 - The rally was relief not the breakout and the pullback happened. Bitcoin is now sitting near the lower area of the range we’ve been talking about, around $72k to $75k. This is the zone I’ve been watching. Not because I think Bitcoin is broken. I don’t. But because the market got ahead of itself. People saw positive headlines and started acting like the problems were solved. But they weren’t solved. They were just paused, delayed, or maybe slightly improved. A market can rally on hope, but it eventually has to face the actual facts again. And the actual facts are simple: Gas is expensive. Oil is still a problem. The Fed is still stuck. The consumer is getting squeezed. And the dollar is not giving crypto an easy path higher yet. So no, I do not think the pain is fully over. But I also do not think this is the start of some giant collapse to $55k per Bitcoin. That is where I think bearish people are making the mistake. _______________________________________________________________ 💠 #2 - Inflation may stay high, but that does not mean the Fed will hike. This is the part I think a lot of people are missing. If inflation is rising because people are spending too much money, the Fed can raise rates to slow demand.