9d • General discussion
7 of 30 Real Trade Ideas from Our Fund
As you know, when I present trade ideas here, I usually go very deep into the analysis. Each position is built on multiple layers of research: fundamentals, implied volatility levels, volatility surface (both skew and term structure), liquidity, and additional signals I track and I'll share in the posts here.
The goal is always to identify trades with strong premium, high probability, and structures that are relatively easy to manage. But today I decided to do something a little different.
After our latest fund portfolio meeting and internal discussion, we opened 30 new trades across the portfolio. Instead of writing a long analysis for each one, I will simply show you 7 of those trades exactly as they were placed.
Below are 7 of the 30 new positions currently running in our portfolio.
1. ADBE Iron Condor
Structure: Buy 235P / Sell 240P / Sell 310C / Buy 315C (37 DTE)
Premium collected: $197; POP: 57%; P50 probability: 65%; Beta-weighted delta: +0.21; Theta: +$3/day; Max profit: $197; Max loss: $303
2. COIN Iron Condor
Structure: Buy 130P / Sell 140P / Sell 240C / Buy 250C (65 DTE)
Premium collected: $350; POP: 61%; P50 probability: 74%; Beta-weighted delta: -1.61; Theta: +$3.28/day; Max profit: $350; Max loss: $650
3. CRM Put Ratio Spread
Structure: Buy 185P / Sell 2x175P (37 DTE)
Credit received: $117; POP: 86%; Beta-weighted delta: +3.91; Theta: +$9.73; Max profit: $1,117
4. NKE Naked Put
Structure: Sell 50P (65 DTE)
Premium collected: $152; POP: 75%; P50 probability: 86%; Beta-weighted delta: +2.22; Theta: +$2.47; Max profit: $152
5. PEP Strangle
Structure: Sell 145P / Sell 170C (37 DTE)
Premium collected: $279; POP: 71%; P50 probability: 83%; Beta-weighted delta: -0.69; Theta: +$9.70; Max profit: $279
6. AMD Put Credit Spread
Structure: Buy 180P / Sell 190P (37 DTE)
Premium collected: $262; POP: 66%; P50 probability: 78%; Beta-weighted delta: +5.37; Theta: +$2.03; Max profit: $262
7. VISA Risk-Free Butterfly (Synthetic Bonds with Lottery Ticket)
Structure: Long 100 shares + Buy 300P / Sell 2×320C / Buy 335C (646 DTE)
POP: >99.5%; Net debit: $28,871; Max profit: $3,200
This is not a standard premium-selling trade, it's a risk-free structure built from long-dated options. It uses the interest-rate component of option pricing (rho) and the pricing relationship between calls and puts. In practice, the position behaves like a synthetic bond inside the options market, and the core payoff is fixed, but the call wing leaves a lottery ticket embedded in the structure.
Final Thought
A professional options portfolio is built from many small probability edges across different sectors, expirations, and volatility regimes. Each trade adds a piece of theta, diversification, and probabilistic edge. Stack enough of them together and the portfolio becomes a volatility-harvesting machine.
None of these trades are set-and-forget. We always trade in chains (campaigns), not isolated trades. For a detailed explanation of how we manage positions, roll trades, structure campaigns, and control risk, read my 2026 Trading Plan. It explains the full framework behind these trades and the mechanics.
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7 of 30 Real Trade Ideas from Our Fund
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