The Middle East conflict continued into a second week with no clear resolution in sight. Oil prices are up more than 50% in the last month on concerns about transport through the Strait of Hormuz, creating a new drag on the economy at a time when momentum already appears to be fading. On Friday, the Commerce Department cut its fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) estimate in half to 0.7% growth and said that prices rose by 2.8% in January. When people think they can get out and get back in, they almost always miss the rapid upswing. Research from major financial institutions consistently shows that attempting to time the market by exiting during downturns is often more damaging than the downturn itself. This is primarily because the stock market's best-performing days frequently occur within days or weeks of its worst-performing days

I have owned this company for over 10 years. It just keeps on keeping on, even when the government was trying to hem in their business. It might seem odd to suggest an energy company at a time when oil prices are so volatile. But Enterprise operates in the midstream, helping to move oil and natural gas around the world. It charges fees for the use of its energy infrastructure assets and thus cares more about the volumes flowing through its system than about the prices of the commodities it moves. The business's reliability is highlighted by Enterprise's streak of 27 annual distribution increases. On top of that, it has an investment-grade rated balance sheet, and its distributable cash flow covers its distribution by a very strong 1.7x. In fact, supply issues in the Middle East could help Enterprise if they lead to increased demand for U.S. oil and natural gas. Even the most conservative investors will likely find the 5.8% distribution yield from this midstream giant attractive.

Oracle ruled the relational database world for years, but seemed to get left behind by the Fab 4 & Mag 7. It seems to be back as a leader in the AI datacenter race. Watch out, though, lots of debt. Oracle Calms Investor Fears article by Motley Fool Oracle (NTSE ORCL) grew earnings by 21% year over year, thanks to 44% growth in cloud revenue, and ended the quarter with remaining performance obligations (RPO) of $553 billion, up 325%. Management said they expect the momentum to continue, guiding for double-digit increases in both total and cloud revenue through fiscal 2027. The market cheered, sending Oracle up 1% amid a tough week for markets. - Keep an eye on capex: Oracle is spending heavily to generate that revenue. Increased capital spending drove free cash flow to a negative $24.7 billion over the past 12 months. That level of spending, coupled with signs of cracks in the private credit markets, had investors on edge heading into Oracle's earnings report. - "Oracle's RPO Nonsense": Tim Beyers flags a section of the company's 10-Q regulatory filing that seems to imply that at least some of that $553 billion backlog might be at risk. The issue is that Oracle doesn't really say how much of it is at risk or under what conditions, which Beyers calls "a little odd."

Here are the statistics showing the impact of missing the market's best days over a 20-year period: - Staying Invested: An initial $10,000 investment would grow to $64,844, with an annualized return of approximately 9.5%.  ** Note: this is just an average return. Many people with advisors don't even achieve this. - Missing the 10 Best Days: The final value drops significantly to $29,708, and the annualized return falls to 5.3%.   - Missing the 30 Best Days: The investment grows only to $13,710, with an annualized return of just 1.6%.   - Missing the 40 Best Days: This results in a net loss, with the final value dropping to $9,414 and a negative annualized return of -0.3%.  

A famous Schwab Center for Financial Research study compared different investor personalities over 20 years. They found that an investor who accidentally invested at the market peak every single year (the worst possible timing) still fared significantly better than an investor who stayed in cash waiting for the "right time." The Math: The "Worst Timer" ended up with 3x more wealth than the "Procrastinator" who stayed in cash, simply because they benefited from the market's long-term upward trend and dividend reinvestment. Summary of Risks 1. Locking in Losses: Selling after a drop turns a "paper loss" into a permanent loss of capital. 2. Missing the Rebound: Most market gains happen in sudden, violent bursts. Missing just one or two of these can set a retirement plan back by a decade. 3. The Entry Problem: Investors who exit usually struggle to decide when it is "safe" to get back in, often waiting until prices are already higher than where they sold.