Evening everyone
I wanted to share a quick analysis for anyone interested in investing in AI at Google.
I used a 4-step framework: Descriptive, Diagnostic, Predictive, and Prescriptive.
1️⃣ Descriptive (What’s happening now?)
- Alphabet’s Q3 2025 revenue: $102.3B ✅
- Google Cloud is growing fast due to enterprise AI demand
- Gemini 3 launched across Search, Workspace, and enterprise tools
- Capex increased to scale AI infrastructure
2️⃣ Diagnostic (Why is this happening?)
- Enterprise AI contracts are driving Cloud growth
- AI in products boosts user engagement and revenue
- Heavy investment now for future profit
- Competition and pricing pressure exist
3️⃣ Predictive (What could happen next?)
- Base Case: Cloud grows 25–30%, margins improve gradually
- Bull Case: Cloud grows 35–45%, strong AI adoption
- Bear Case: Cloud grows 10–15%, margins may compress
4️⃣ Prescriptive (What should an investor do?)
- Track Cloud revenue, backlog, Gemini usage, and capex
- Conservative: 3–6% allocation, hold long-term
- Balanced: 6–12% allocation, dollar-cost average
- Aggressive: 12–20% allocation, tactical positions
✅ Key takeaway: Google’s AI strategy is a long-term growth opportunity, especially in Cloud and AI products.
Investors should monitor KPIs closely and make data-driven decisions.
Many thanks 🌸