Hey everyone, sharing a setup I'm watching right now. On the 4h, NZD/CHF broke down hard from the late-June highs, and since then it's been ranging/retracing. What caught my eye is the triangle forming: a descending trendline from the highs, an ascending trendline from the lows, and the two are converging fast over the next few days. Price is sitting right in the retracement zone of that drop, with a clear resistance shelf overhead and a support that lines up with the rising trendline below. What makes this interesting is the catalyst: the RBNZ announces its decision tomorrow, and it's genuinely up in the air. The market's leaning toward a hike but several major local banks are calling for a hold, and the committee itself was split last time around. Tight decision = usually a sharp move, and that works out well since my triangle is due to break around the same time anyway. My scenario: - Hike + firm tone → leaning toward the upside break - Hold, or a hike with a cautious message → I'd lean toward the downside break toward my support On the CHF side, the SNB just held rates and isn't meeting again until September, so for now it's really the NZD driving this pair. Keeping a close eye on it and managing risk around the support zone given how much volatility the announcement could bring. Let me know if you're watching this one too 👇

💭 The dollar's been king for 2 months… is month-end about to flip it? Quick one to chew on before today's live session. The USD has run hard for two straight months on the back of a hawkish Warsh Fed. But we're now into end-of-June — and that's when big institutions rebalance their books and take profit on crowded positions. At the same time, USDJPY is sitting above 161, in the exact zone the BoJ has flagged for intervention — and the BoJ likes to act when liquidity is thin, which is exactly what month-end gives you. So the real question for the week: does the dollar keep grinding, or do we get a month-end unwind? I'll break down exactly how I'm positioned for this on today's Zoom. 🕠 5:30 AM LA — open to everyone.

Kevin Warsh is now officially Fed Chairman. For me, the interesting part isn’t really the nomination itself. It’s more what the market reaction around it is starting to reveal. For months now, one of the recurring themes we’ve talked about is that markets may have been too comfortable pricing a smooth path lower in rates. But macro doesn’t always move in a straight line. Now slowly, the conversation seems to be changing. Less:“When do cuts come?” More:👉 Do rates stay higher for longer?👉 And how realistic is it that hikes become a real discussion again? That shift matters. Especially in a context where: - inflation pressures remain elevated - energy still stays an important variable - geopolitical risks haven’t disappeared - and growth is slowing… but not breaking This doesn’t automatically mean hikes become the base case. But I do think the market is becoming less convinced that the path forward is as simple as many expected. Interesting shift to watch. Not because it changes everything overnight. But because sometimes the most important moves start when expectations begin to change.

🌎 FUNDAMENTAL REPORT – Preparation for the Coming Week The markets are entering an extremely sensitive week where geopolitics could once again dictate the tempo. The US-Iran conflict continues to dominate investors’ attention, with negotiations still ongoing but no concrete agreement yet regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As a result: oil remains firmly above $100, central banks are starting to navigate an increasingly uncomfortable environment between energy-driven inflation and slowing economic growth, while markets continue to swing constantly between euphoria and geopolitical stress. 🇺🇸 Extremely important week ahead for the dollar and the Fed. The main event is obviously the official arrival of Kevin Warsh as head of the Federal Reserve following the end of Jerome Powell’s term. The market still doesn’t really know his monetary policy bias yet, which is creating a huge amount of uncertainty around upcoming Fed decisions. On Wednesday, the latest FOMC minutes will be closely watched to measure: - the level of internal division within the Fed, - the appetite for a rate hike as soon as June, - and especially the impact of rising energy prices on inflation projections. The market is still pricing very little tightening despite: - CPI and PPI continuing to accelerate, - a labor market that remains solid, - and energy prices moving sharply higher again. The dollar remains stuck between several opposing forces: - support from elevated oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and higher US yields, - but vulnerability in case of a US-Iran agreement or weak US Treasury auctions. Also keep a close eye on Wednesday’s US 20-year bond auction, which could become a real stress test for the bond market. On the data side: - preliminary PMIs, - Philly Fed, - and housing datawill all be important to measure whether the economy is actually slowing down or not. Finally, massive focus on NVIDIA on Wednesday evening. US indices continue to ignore macro risks thanks to the AI theme.

Markets are becoming very interesting right now and a lot of the positions we’ve been building over the past days are continuing to develop well. 📈 Current macro conditions still heavily support overall dollar strength and pressure across several risk assets, which is why positions like US30 sells, EURUSD sells and USDCHF buys have been reacting very well so far. JPY pairs are also becoming increasingly interesting at current levels and we recently started building exposure there as well with positions on EURJPY and USDJPY. At the same time, the overall macro environment remains extremely active heading into next week between:• Hawkish Fed positioning• Sticky inflation pressures• Interest rate expectations remaining elevated• Ongoing geopolitical tensions with Iran• And the Strait of Hormuz still remaining closed A lot of markets are approaching important areas and volatility is clearly starting to increase again across the board. Overall, very interesting environment right now with a lot of opportunities potentially developing going into next week. 🌍 Would be interesting to know as well:who’s currently still holding some of these positions with me going into next week, and who already secured partials or closed profits along the way. 📈