3d • 🌍 MARKET DISCUSSIONS
Trade Idea - NZDCHF
Hey everyone, sharing a setup I'm watching right now.
On the 4h, NZD/CHF broke down hard from the late-June highs, and since then it's been ranging/retracing. What caught my eye is the triangle forming: a descending trendline from the highs, an ascending trendline from the lows, and the two are converging fast over the next few days. Price is sitting right in the retracement zone of that drop, with a clear resistance shelf overhead and a support that lines up with the rising trendline below.
What makes this interesting is the catalyst: the RBNZ announces its decision tomorrow, and it's genuinely up in the air. The market's leaning toward a hike but several major local banks are calling for a hold, and the committee itself was split last time around. Tight decision = usually a sharp move, and that works out well since my triangle is due to break around the same time anyway.
My scenario:
- Hike + firm tone → leaning toward the upside break
- Hold, or a hike with a cautious message → I'd lean toward the downside break toward my support
On the CHF side, the SNB just held rates and isn't meeting again until September, so for now it's really the NZD driving this pair.
Keeping a close eye on it and managing risk around the support zone given how much volatility the announcement could bring. Let me know if you're watching this one too 👇
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Trade Idea - NZDCHF
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