Thoughts on Regime Collapse...and Rise
The day is coming. Maybe not today and maybe not tomorrow but the situation between the Islamic regime and the people of Iran is approaching a breaking point. So the question is "What does that actually mean?" The end game we'd all like to see is a liberal democractic Iran which is open to the world for economic, cultural and scientific exchange but the route to that end has many many stops and, very unfortunately, much suffering along the way. First the regime in power must "collapse." That means that it must lose effective control of some institution or territory of significance. One could even say that the IRGC's independence from the Guardian Council is itself a sign of regime collapse, but for true change the IRGC must cede control of sime city or province so that an alternative regime will take root. It means that some localized effort needs to draw definitive lines saying it is loyal elsewhere (maybe to the Shah, but even to some local oppositionary council of local popular leaders). That initial rejection of regime authority can be easy by mass-defection in a specific locale or it could be bloody, but won by overwhelming popular support. US or Israrli air cover can help, but only once it is clear that good people will be the ones to take over that city or province. From there the revolution (more like counter-revolution) can spread but by nature tge hardest of the hardliners won't fall quickly. They might consolidate in Tehran or even in Mashad which is closer to regime-sympathetic borders. As long as some hold out resists there is still danger of terrorism against any emergent regime, as well as internal instability among opposotion groups. I do believe Iran is on the right track but we must acknowledge that stability and peace for regular Iranians could still be 4-5 years away. Even reconstruction aid from the US or Israel may be delayed until a unified authority can guarantee how aid money will be used (ie will this build a hospital or a missile factory?)