Jarvis key economic overview 12/4
✅ Key economic / central‑bank events today - In the U.S., today’s scheduled releases include weekly jobless claims and the trade deficit report. - These data points could influence sentiment ahead of the upcoming release of the delayed core inflation gauge (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index — PCE) early next week. - Given ongoing speculation about monetary policy, markets remain focused on any signals from central‑bank watchers. The expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) remains elevated. Implication: The jobless claims + trade data could either reinforce or shake up the narrative of economic softness — either supporting the case for easier policy or bringing caution back into play before PCE. Volatility could pick up, especially around the release time. 🌍 Global markets overnight — Asia & Europe, plus futures/FX setup for U.S. open - In Asia, stocks overall were mixed, but the Nikkei 225 (Japan) surged ~2.2–2.3%, boosted by a strong 30‑year JGB auction, which helped relieve bond‑market jitters. - Elsewhere in Asia, markets were more muted: some weakness in parts of the region (e.g., Korea, certain markets) tempered the overall risk appetite. - In Europe, shares rose modestly — the STOXX 600 climbed ~0.1%, driven by industrials and automakers; technology stocks also posted modest gains. - On the FX side, the U.S. dollar has come under pressure: weaker dollar, stronger euro — euro is near a 7‑week high — as markets price in increased odds of a Fed rate cut. - Early U.S. futures sentiment appears moderately positive: European index futures up, suggesting a possibly constructive tone into the U.S. open. Implication: Risk‑on sentiment is alive, especially given Asia’s rebound and Europe’s stability. Dollar softness could lift dollar‑denominated equities / commodities, while a stronger euro may reflect shifting global capital flows. That sets a cautiously optimistic backdrop for the U.S. open — but with room for knee‑jerk reactions after the economic data.