Pre-market briefing for Friday, November 28, 2025

1. Key economic / central-bank releases or events today

According to several U.S. economic-calendar trackers, there are no major “headline” releases scheduled today — at least none that typically drive big volatility (e.g. CPI, jobs, PCE).
The data backlog from the recent government shutdown continues to weigh on the release schedule, which means many of the usual macroeconomic reports remain deferred.
On the central-bank front, there is no scheduled decision from the Federal Reserve (Fed) or other major central banks today. The key upcoming focal point remains market expectations around a potential Fed rate cut in December.

Implication: With limited fresh macro data and no bank meetings, market activity may be more influenced by positioning, flows, and structural factors rather than new economic surprises — unless an unexpected news event emerges.

2. Overnight global markets and futures / FX cues for U.S. open

Asian markets ended the day mixed: the broader MSCI Asia‑Pacific Index slipped ~0.3%, but for the week ended “up about 2.7%,” ending a multi-week slump.
Some regional/actionable divergences: Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s benchmark posted weekly gains; Chinese and Hong Kong markets were more mixed.
U.S. futures are trading with modest gains ahead of the open, underpinned by heightened market expectations that the Fed will cut rates in December.
Currency markets show some tension: speculation around a possible policy divergence (Fed easing vs. Bank of Japan — BoJ — tightening) is drawing attention to the yen and could pressure USD/JPY if carry trades unwind.

Implication: Overall global sentiment appears cautiously optimistic for U.S. equities ahead of the open, but watch for FX-driven volatility, especially if dollar/yen or dollar/Asia crosses stir action.

3. Pre-market movement — spotlight on Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) and key indices

As of the latest available quote, TSLA is trading around $426.58. Market data for premarket isn’t showing a dramatic gap — no obvious large gap up or down as of now.
Broader indices (via ETFs like SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust — SPY — and Invesco QQQ Trust — QQQ) appear modestly positive, reflecting the bullish tilt in futures.

Implication: At this moment, TSLA is not flashing a pre-market gap that would demand immediate attention, but broader equity futures support a constructive open. Keep an eye on the open — gaps can develop quickly if any news breaks or flow intensifies.

4. Significant news headlines, earnings, or geopolitical developments

The major structural headline: trading on futures and options across many markets has been disrupted by a technical outage at the CME Group. The outage halted trading across equities, commodities, FX, bonds, and more.
This disruption has frozen price discovery in critical instruments (e.g. index futures, treasury futures, FX futures), introducing uncertainty into re-opening.
Aside from infrastructure disruption, there is no major earnings release or geopolitical event currently dominating headlines. Market commentary suggests ongoing attention to AI-sector developments and general macro positioning heading into year-end.

Implication: The CME outage is a wild card — if unresolved by open, it could cause volatility or illiquidity. Even without fresh earnings, structural market dynamics (flows, positioning, rate expectations) will likely steer action.

5. Key technical levels / indicators (indices & selected names)

Because of limited fresh data and the CME disruption, technical levels should be viewed with caution — pre-market may not fully reflect true market sentiment. That said:

For major indices (S&P 500 / Nasdaq via SPY / QQQ), given the modest uptick in futures, watch for near-term resistance around recent swing highs. If the rally sustains, a break above those highs could validate a short-term bullish continuation.
For TSLA: the ~$426.5 level may serve as immediate near-term support/resistance, depending on where the open takes it. Without strong gap or volume, look for confirmation in early volume and price action before scaling in.

Because real-time technical indicators (e.g. RSI, MACD) require intraday data flow — which may be disrupted — I don’t have reliable reads on those right now.

6. Options / volume flow — any unusual activity?

I do not see publicly available firm evidence (yet) of unusual options flow or volume spikes for TSLA or the major indices as of this morning. Given the broader disruption from the CME outage, alert-level volume or flow signals may be muted or distorted.

Implication: Without clean data, it may be risky to rely on options-flow screens this morning — better to wait for clear patterns or reopening of normal trading infrastructure.

7. Overall Market Sentiment — what’s the mood, and how’s the fear gauge behaving?

Sentiment leans toward cautious optimism heading into the U.S. session: progress on rate-cut expectations at the Fed, modest gains in futures — but tempered by structural uncertainty due to the CME outage.
According to commentary, markets are hopeful for a December rate cut; this is supporting risk assets.
Risk gauges (e.g. implied volatility) are likely dampened or distorted this morning due to the liquidity freeze; historically this kind of outage can temporarily suppress volume and distort typical volatility signals.

Implication: The “neutral-to-bullish” tilt should be viewed through a lens of caution — real volatility may emerge as the market re-opens and trading flows normalize.

8. Sector rotations or flows that might impact tech / TSLA

According to recent market commentary, there is growing investor scrutiny on high-valuation tech (including AI-related names), with some rotation potential toward other sectors as rate-cut hopes rise.
If rate cuts materialize, yield-sensitive sectors (e.g. tech, growth) could benefit — but only if valuation concerns don’t resurface. Given possible broader sector re-allocation, movement into cyclicals or defensive names can’t be ruled out.

Implication for TSLA / tech: TSLA could benefit if the rate-cut narrative strengthens — but in a disrupted liquidity environment, correlation breakdowns are possible. Watch sector flows once trading normalizes.

9. Risk-management guardrails for today

Given the structural uncertainty (CME outage, lack of fresh data, low liquidity), prudent risk controls are especially important:

Tighten stop-loss orders (or avoid large directional bets) until market liquidity normalizes and futures/derivatives begin trading again.
Limit position sizing — avoid over-leveraging on any single name (especially high-volatility names like TSLA).
Consider hedging: if holding tech or growth exposure, perhaps run a small hedged position (e.g. inverse index or put options) until volatility and liquidity stabilize.
Avoid initiating complex multi-leg option trades until the options market “reads” volume and open interest correctly again.

10. My suggested trading thesis for the day — with contingency plan

Base thesis (conditional on stable reopening): Given the supportive macro backdrop (rising Fed-cut odds), TSLA and broadly high-beta growth could rebound modestly into the open, particularly if futures gains hold. If TSLA begins with strength and volume supports, a breakout toward recent resistance (~+5–7% intraday) appears plausible.

Contingency: If the CME outage persists or liquidity remains thin, avoid entering large directional trades. Instead, stay sidelined or consider small-sized hedged exposure until normal trading resumes. Monitor opening price action closely; if pre-market gains evaporate on thin volume — treat that as a warning signal.

Trading resumed? — As of now, equity cash markets appear open, but futures/options trading through CME remains disrupted due to the data-center issue. That disrupts the normal feedback loops in futures/derivatives, which raises risk that price discovery and typical pre-trade signals (volume, options flow) may remain unreliable this morning.

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