Macro data 2.10.26 · Jarvis AI

Chris Lee

Feb 10 (edited) • General discussion

Macro data 2.10.26

Key Economic Releases & Central Bank Events (Today)

Economic calendar highlights (U.S. EST):

08:30 — Retail Sales (Dec) — Important cyclical demand indicator ahead of CPI/jobs data.
08:30 — Employment Cost Index — Wage inflation gauge.
08:30 — Import/Export Prices — Early inflation pressure signals.
10:00+ — Bill auctions & Treasury announcements.
Speeches: Fed Governors/Senior officials throughout day — markets will parse nuance for policy path guidance.

No FOMC rate decision today. Minutes from Jan 27–28 meeting are scheduled later this month.

Central bank presence: Fed speakers (Waller, Miran, Bostic) could influence intraday yield and equity vol pricing.

Overnight & Pre‑Market Global Market Action

Asia:

Japanese stocks reached record highs amid fiscal stimulus confidence and yen strength.
Broader Asia sentiment mixed but tilted positive.

Europe:

UK bond yields and currencies showed volatility following political news.

Futures/FX:

U.S. stock index futures are muted to slightly higher ahead of today’s data.
USD broadly softer, JPY and CNY strength noted in forex flows.

Pre‑Market Key Stocks / Watchlist (e.g., TSLA)

From market previews this morning:

Tesla showing modest pre‑market strength, similar to other major tech names.
Notable momentum also in AMD, NVidia, Broadcom vs. pressure on Apple early.

Specific price gaps vary by data feed — check your live terminal for exact levels.

Significant News, Earnings & Geopolitical Drivers

Earnings flow:

Cisco Systems, Coca‑Cola, McDonald’s, CVS Health, T‑Mobile, Hasbro, Spotify, Harley‑Davidson slated this week.
Onsemi missed revenue, heavier pre‑market weakness.
Yahoo Finance earnings calendar confirms Coca‑Cola, AstraZeneca, Gilead, Welltower reporting today.

Geopolitical/Policy:

President Trump recently made policy remarks including support for a Fed nominee and growth targets that are influencing markets.
No major scheduled speech from Trump today per available feeds; the next high‑profile address is the State of the Union on Feb. 24, 2026, at 9:00 p.m. EST.

Technical Levels & Indicators — Key Indexes

(Indicative levels should be verified on your real‑time charting platform, but here’s context)

S&P 500 (SPX):

RSI: Neutral to slightly extended depending on session drift.
MACD: Turning positive but watch for signal line cross.
Key Levels: Psychological 5,000 zone, recent swing lows for support.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX):

Tech volatility remains elevated — watch EMA21/50 clusters for intraday bounce support.

VIX (fear gauge):

Latest close ~17.8, trending lower vs. prior week — suggests bearish risk premium easing.

Unusual Options Activity & Institutional Flow

Have your flow alerts on call/put volume skew for the aforementioned earnings plays (Cisco, Coca‑Cola, McDonald’s).
Watch for skew shifts in NDX/SPX options ahead of Retail Sales prints.(You’ll want live options flow tools — this feed isn’t available via static calendars.)

Overall Market Sentiment

Current backdrop:

Global equities broadly constructive but cautious ahead of U.S. macro prints.
Soft USD and lower volatility often point to risk–on tilt but earnings and data risk cap upside.

Conclusion: Neutral‑tilt with potential for rotation on data beats/misses.

Sector Rotation Notes

Tech & Semis: showing strength pre‑open (NVidia, AMD, Broadcom).
Consumer Staples/Discretionary: earnings catalysts could shift rotation post‑print.

Risk Management Framework (General)

For today’s trade plan consider:

Stop‑loss levels just below intraday support zones (EMA50, prior swing lows).
Position sizing aligned with realized volatility trends (higher vol → smaller size).
Hedges: Short duration or volatility positions in case of data disappointments.

(This is general risk framework, NOT personalized advice.)

10)

Primary Trading Plan / Thesis

Pre‑Open Bias:

Monitor Retail Sales & Import/Export Prices at 8:30 — key for data‑driven rally continuation.
Use futures and implied volatility movement to pre‑size directional positions.

Adaptation Triggers:

Bullish: Retail Sales/Inflation stronger than forecast → tech continuation; long bias with trailing stops.
Bearish: Weak data → rotate to defense, tighten risk parameters.

11)

Trump Speaking & Timing

No specific scheduled speech from President Trump listed for Feb. 10, 2026 on major market calendars.
Past remarks (e.g., on Fed and growth) have come via interviews, not scheduled press events.

12)

Big‑Cap Earnings Today / Over the Next 24 Hours

Scheduled earnings today (per Yahoo & earnings calendars):

Coca‑Cola (KO)
AstraZeneca (AZN)
Gilead Sciences (GILD)
Welltower (WELL)Global earnings flow for tech and consumer names continues to shape sentiment today.

If you’d like live levels/scan triggers or a concise entry/exit matrix for today’s session, I can generate that next.

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