Date: 16/02
We're looking at an interesting week ahead in Gold. The charts are wide open to interpretation at the moment.
As difficult as it may be, now is a time to be on the sidelines and wait for clarity to emerge so that we can act confidently instead of letting price action prove our different trades wrong.
We're going into the week with 3 very possible and valid scenarios that are playing out in Gold at the moment. I will share the 3 scenarios below
Scenario 1 - This scenario indicates that Gold is still currently in its corrective phase. It seems to be undergoing a regular ABC corrective with the current pullback (H - 5119) having completed Wave B and our last leg of Wave C having already begun with targets of 4000 - 3800 looking likely. This Scenario stays valid as long as the high of 5119 remains intact. Although I DO NOT recommend shorting Gold - the high of 5119 is to be used as an invalidation for this theory and can hence be used as a stop loss for any short position being created with this scenario in mind.
Scenario 2 - This scenario also indicates that Gold is in a corrective phase. It would also show that Gold has gone into a complex corrective structure with Wave B getting extended time wise. This structure breaks the corrective down even further and shows Wave B being played out in a ABC corrective itself. These kind of corrections are usually drawn out time wise and often come after big and quick rallies. Here we are currently sitting in Wave b of B with another up move passed the recent high of 5119 needed to actually conclude the pullback wave before the final down leg (Wave C) begins. I personally would not recommend trying to play out or catch these waves but instead to wait and see how closely gold follows this pattern giving us a great opportunity to enter when Wave C concludes.
Scenario 3 - The only bullish scenario that I can currently see on the charts. This scenario indicates that the corrective has completely ended at 4402 and the price action is already laying its foundation for the next rally upside. For this scenario to hold true - gold must not breach the previous swing low of 4654. This scenario would come much more into strength if price action breaches the current swing top of 5119 while maintaining the SL of 4654. This would show a structural shift that indicates that a bullish momentum could be building and that the corrective could in fact be over.
Charts for all scenarios below