The "Alt Season" Signal: While Bitcoin was struggling to find a bottom recently, many altcoins were already setting higher lows. - Bitcoin Dominance: We are seeing a failed breakout of the 2022 trend line (retested Nov 3rd). That support has turned into resistance and is falling again. - Conclusion: This coincides with the "higher lows" in alts and is exactly what you want to see heading into the end of the cycle. Major Assets Bitcoin ($BTC) – Current: $86,982 - The Trend: Bouncing off lows in the $80k range; looking for a continuation. - Key Pivot Point: $95,000. Ethereum ($ETH) – Current: $2,898 - ETH/BTC Ratio: Currently at 0.033. This rising ratio is a good sign. Usually, a breakdown here signals danger, but the current rise supports a continuation of the run. Solana ($SOL) – Current: $135 - Support: Had a move down to the low $120s, but this 6-month low has been "guarded and defended" multiple times. - Indicators: RSI is very low—levels haven't been this low since April. Last time RSI was here, SOL rebounded from $97 to $251. Avalanche ($AVAX) – Current: $13.90 - Outlook: Price action looks weak, but the RSI is super low (oversold), similar to other older alts. Specific Projects & Plays $PENGU (Pudgy Penguins) – Current: $0.01 - Structure: Forming a higher low (from the previous 0.003 low). - The Setup: Currently in a falling wedge (down from the 1.6–1.7 cent range). - The Catalyst: The team usually announces major news during their Art Basel party in December. - Prediction: A solid entry spot at 1 cent; expecting it to trade very well on the upcoming Art Basel news. bought 20k at 1.4 cents Monad (Launch) - ICO Price: $0.025 (via Coinbase). currently trading at .031 think we get good price action on it with the amount of classic DeFi protocols launching on there - Strategy: Requires a 30-day hold to avoid penalties on future ICOs. - Loophole: Saw a Coinbase exec talking about transferring it on-chain and use it as a "normal user" without getting penalized, as opposed to fully stacking and selling immediately will get you penalized for future ICOs

Condensed Breakdown — “The Distress Is Real” Market Snapshot (as of November 2025) - S&P 500, Nasdaq, Gold: all near record highs; risk-on sentiment is strong. - Bitcoin: stagnant, diverging from traditional risk assets. - Key question: Why isn’t BTC rallying despite bullish macro conditions? Core Thesis - Bitcoin isn’t “broken.” It’s entering a distribution phase—similar to a traditional IPO, where early holders (whales) realize profits and new investors accumulate. - This phase causes sideways price action, even in strong markets. Supporting Evidence - Broken correlation between BTC and Nasdaq since Dec 2024 (see divergence graph). - Old wallets activating: dormant BTC from early years are moving gradually—indicative of controlled exits, not panic selling. - $9 B Galaxy Digital sale for a single client shows large, patient profit-taking, not liquidation. - Sentiment collapse across social media and the Fear & Greed Index mirrors post-IPO fatigue (see sentiment graph). - Bitcoin ETF inflows and strong network fundamentals contradict any bear market narrative. Market Psychology - Early believers (miners, cypherpunks) are finally liquid—able to sell without crashing price due to ETF and institutional demand. - Selling into risk-on liquidity is strategic. - New holders (institutions, funds) are accumulating slowly on dips. Cycle Comparison - Mirrors Amazon (1999–2001), Google (2004–2006), and Facebook (2012–2013) post-IPO consolidations. - Ownership transfer → volatility reduction, market maturity, and institutional stability. Implications - Consolidation window: roughly 6–18 months from Dec 2024; likely ending mid-2025 to early 2026. - Volatility moderating: 80% drawdowns shrink to 30–50%. - Long-term bullish: distribution = maturation; wider ownership = resilience. Conclusion - The OGs are exiting; institutions are entering. - Bitcoin’s “IPO moment” is nearly complete. - What follows isn’t decline—it’s graduation into a stable, globally integrated monetary asset.

Summary Takeaway - Market showing compressed volatility after October’s sharp selloffs. - Doji formations + long lower wicks = early strength signals. - Consolidation periods like this often precede higher timeframe reversals. - Key macro watch: Bitcoin $108k and Ethereum $3,700 — both critical for maintaining structure into November. Bitcoin (BTC) - Price: $110,500 - Trend: Upward momentum; the weekly chart shows a green doji candle, a classic reversal indicator. - Range: 3-week consolidation holding firm. - Key Levels: - Outlook: Structure looks bullish; consolidation base forming before potential November breakout. Ethereum (ETH) - Price: $3,928 - Weekly Range: $3,729 – $3,950 - Outlook: Good structural strength; continuation likely if $3,700 holds. Solana (SOL) - Price: $192 - Channel: Still trading within its ascending channel. - Range: $177, low tapped the channel bottom perfectly. - Resistance: $282 zone — potential breakout target into Nov–Dec. - Outlook: Strongest of the majors technically, holding trend well. Avalanche (AVAX) - Price: $19.69 - 5-Year Avg Price: ~$18.80 - Outlook: Compression + strong holder base suggest medium-term upside. Pengu (PENGU) - Price: $0.020 - Range: $0.046 → $0.020 (≈70% drawdown). - Trend: Still inside a falling wedge since July. - Outlook: Watch for sharp recovery plays when market rotation returns. Pixl (PIXL) - Price: $0.025 - High: $0.04 - Catalyst: Monad mainnet launch expected early–mid November; claim portal closes Nov 3. - Outlook: Quiet accumulation now; likely volatility spike around launch window.

Key Trend: Expecting slow consolidation and upward movement later this month with a strong outlook for November and December from a technical standpoint. Bitcoin (BTC): Current Price: 111k Recent Activity: Experienced a deeper retracement to a low of 102k on October 10th, but recovered strongly. Key Support: The critical support area is pegged at 108k Ethereum (ETH): Current Price: 3994 Recent Activity: Saw a breakdown from 44 all the way to a low of 3511, but has recovered up to approximately 4200. Analysis: ETH is seen as having a better technical setup than Bitcoin, which supports the ongoing ETH/BTC ratio trade. ETH/BTC Ratio: Current Ratio: 0.035. The ratio is maintaining its level well and is not far from the .043 recent high consolidation on Ethereum has been tighter and think we see the leg up into the 5500s pushing ratio up to my next sell around .053 Altcoin Deep Dive & Tokens Solana (SOL): Current Trading Area: Around 200. Volatility: Experienced a massive wick down to a low of 130 (from a high of 225), with the daily closing around 170. Still looks "shaky." Channel Check: Price is back above the daily trend line, keeping it within its long-term channel (Range: 190 to 283) established since March. Outlook: Anticipating upward movement toward the next channel top, possibly in the 280s in November. Avalanche (AVAX): Current Price: 21.64 Recent High: Reached 24.14 just a few days ago. Volatility: Experienced a sharp low wick down to approximately 8.50, but recovered into the $20 range the same day. Outlook: Currently moving in the correct direction, with expected movement upward in November. PENGU: Current Price: 0.023 Recent Highs: Traded in the range of $0.024 to $0.027. Volatility: Noted a recent low wick down to 0.005. still trading in the green buy box these are great prices to stack with speculation around big announcements coming in December at Art Basel in Miami This is my high risk high reward token that I am adding to this list. PIXL:

Crypto Market Recap — October 9, 2025 🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) — $120,483 - Last update: ~$114K - Broke above $117.5K → confirmed bullish sentiment - New all-time high: $125K - Expected move: pullback to $117K (turn resistance into support) - If support holds → target $131K within the next couple of months - Structure remains strong; not a fast move, but steady ⚫ Bitcoin Dominance — 59% - Broke long-term trendline in mid-August - Currently holding around 59% - Potential rise to 61% → retest of that two-year trendline - Likely rejection at that level → could mirror last cycle - Prior cycle: dominance fell from 70% → 40% after a similar setup, expecting 62% → 50%: not as steep a fall due to ETFs and DATs (digital asset treasuries) 🟣 Ethereum (ETH) — $4,300 - Price unchanged since last update - Still compressing in a tight range → accumulation phase - Compression signals comfort → potential for breakout later - ETH/BTC ratio: 0.035 - Could dip to 0.032 and remain bullish - Sell/trim targets: 0.054 and 0.062 🟢 Solana (SOL) — $217 - High: $253 → Low: $191 → Now: $238 (higher low) - Still respecting the long-term channel since March 2025 - As long as it holds $200, the structure remains intact - Channel movements continue to show strength 🔺 Avalanche (AVAX) — $27 - Recent high: $36 - Now testing $26.5–$25.5 range → former resistance turned support - Pattern consistent with a healthy break/retest setup - Holding that zone → strong sign for upward continuation 🐧 Pengu (PENGU) — $0.03 - Dipped into buy zone ($0.027–$0.025) between Sept 25–30 - Quick rebound to $0.03 → healthy consolidation - Still under key resistance → needs a clean break above $0.036 - Until breakout, expect sideways accumulation