Nov 2 • ✍️ Criers Corner ✍️
Tired of the sideways action?
Condensed Breakdown — “The Distress Is Real”
Market Snapshot (as of November 2025)
- S&P 500, Nasdaq, Gold: all near record highs; risk-on sentiment is strong.
- Bitcoin: stagnant, diverging from traditional risk assets.
- Key question: Why isn’t BTC rallying despite bullish macro conditions?
Core Thesis
- Bitcoin isn’t “broken.” It’s entering a distribution phase—similar to a traditional IPO, where early holders (whales) realize profits and new investors accumulate.
- This phase causes sideways price action, even in strong markets.
Supporting Evidence
- Broken correlation between BTC and Nasdaq since Dec 2024 (see divergence graph).
- Old wallets activating: dormant BTC from early years are moving gradually—indicative of controlled exits, not panic selling.
- $9 B Galaxy Digital sale for a single client shows large, patient profit-taking, not liquidation.
- Sentiment collapse across social media and the Fear & Greed Index mirrors post-IPO fatigue (see sentiment graph).
- Bitcoin ETF inflows and strong network fundamentals contradict any bear market narrative.
Market Psychology
- Early believers (miners, cypherpunks) are finally liquid—able to sell without crashing price due to ETF and institutional demand.
- Selling into risk-on liquidity is strategic.
- New holders (institutions, funds) are accumulating slowly on dips.
Cycle Comparison
- Mirrors Amazon (1999–2001), Google (2004–2006), and Facebook (2012–2013) post-IPO consolidations.
- Ownership transfer → volatility reduction, market maturity, and institutional stability.
Implications
- Consolidation window: roughly 6–18 months from Dec 2024; likely ending mid-2025 to early 2026.
- Volatility moderating: 80% drawdowns shrink to 30–50%.
- Long-term bullish: distribution = maturation; wider ownership = resilience.
Conclusion
- The OGs are exiting; institutions are entering.
- Bitcoin’s “IPO moment” is nearly complete.
- What follows isn’t decline—it’s graduation into a stable, globally integrated monetary asset.
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Tired of the sideways action?
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