Update: 6:42 AM PST 09/02/2025
Bitcoin's making another attempt at breaking out from the falling wedge pattern. Looks like those Mag7's have been getting bought on the open after gapping down, but surprisingly BTC has been an outperformer this morning. Watching this closely! A breakout to the upside from this wedge could send BTC and large caps much higher.
If BTC finally decouples from SPX and NDX, and begins to trade more like a risk off asset during period of stress, and a risk on asset during periods of exuberance, even as gold pares back some of its recent gains, that is the sign we have been waiting for that BTC correlation with tradfi is starting to break, if only a little bit at first. Let's watch as see what happens through the rest of this week.
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Update: 5:57 AM PST 09/02/2025
Falling wedge failed to breakout to the upside, SPX and Mag7 selling off pre-market open. Watch a gap down in SPX and a sharp move higher in VIX. This is what we have been waiting for as a buying opportunity, but not quite yet. Let's see if the gaps down in Mag 7 get bought today or not.
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It's really close to breaking out, that would be a big, big breakout if it happens.