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Read this before you argue with any number I post
I built a scanner that finds chart patterns, and then I did the part nobody does — I followed every single one to see whether it actually worked. Most of them don't. The first pattern almost everyone learns, head and shoulders, reached target 142 times out of 531 attempts in US stocks. Taking any US pattern at all, choosing nothing, reached target 4,899 times out of 10,326. I went looking for a reason to keep it and found a better reason to drop it. That's the room. Everything here is a number that had a chance to embarrass me, and some of them did. — Three things, then you're set. Every rate here carries its n, including the ones above. "Double bottom long, 66.4%" is decoration. 1,106 of 1,665 attempts is a number. If I post one without the other, say so in the comments — I'd rather be corrected here than on Reddit. Nothing is judged on its own. Taking any US pattern at all reaches target 4,899 times out of 10,326 attempts. Forex, 50 out of 156. Commodities, 85 out of 169. So a rule that gets 45 out of 100 is bad in US stocks and good in forex, and quoting it without saying which market is meaningless. The losers stay up. 3,964 stopped out in US stocks alone, and another 1,463 went nowhere. If I ever quietly delete a row, every number above it becomes worthless, so I can't. Two things I did delete this week, on purpose. My forex list went from 778 pairs to 10, and 9,351 finished patterns went to 156. Half of that second cut was my own fault: every pair I kept had its inverse in the book as well, so every move was counted twice and six setups were clearing my 20-attempt floor on duplicates. One of them still grades A on 23 real attempts, which is the part I was glad to find. The Friday post that was going to be about forex is now about US stocks, because I deleted its evidence. What I can't tell you: whether any of this works on the right hand edge of the chart. Every number I have is measured on bars that already printed. Argue in Argue with the numbers. It's the one category you can post in.
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HI NICE TO MEET YOU AND I AM GLAD TO BE IN THIS SPACE YOU ARE TRYING TO BUILD
Hey everyone, just joined and wanted to introduce myself. I'm currently working on my own Skool community and connecting with other creators who are also somewhere in the building or pre-launch stage. I'd be interested in hearing from other community owners here. If you're the owner, feel free to say hello or send me a DM. I'd love to compare experiences.
Three members, thirty-seven posts
The scoreboard, because posting the numbers only when they flatter you is the thing this room exists not to do: members at the start — 3 members now — 3 posts published — 37 (this one included) Three days of writing into a room nobody arrives at. The posts are not the problem — for most of that time the only link a stranger could click did not point here at all, which I found by opening my own page as a stranger for the first time. The door exists now. Nobody has walked through it yet, and I said in advance what number would make me change approach rather than keep going: five members by 10 September. It has not moved and I am not moving it.
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Three members, thirty-seven posts
Twelve of twenty-two lose. That is the headline, not the footnote.
Counted again rather than repeated from memory: setups measured — 22 beat their own market — 10 lose to it — 12 More than half the recognised chart patterns I could judge do worse than taking every pattern that market offers. Not slightly worse in some cases — the worst is twenty-five points below. I did not set out to prove that. I set out to measure the shapes I had been taught, and this is what came back. The book keeps the twelve in it at the same size as the ten, because a book that only shows the winners has already made your decision for you. Which number in your own work would you least like to publish?
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Twelve of twenty-two lose. That is the headline, not the footnote.
A witness that cannot be forgotten
The gate can now ask the live room whether a post is already up, by title, before publishing. The point is not the check. It is where the check gets its answer. A marker file written by us and read by us is one source wearing two coats. The room fails for different reasons — network, markup, a renamed field — and nobody has to remember to update it. Three tests, and the third is the one I would have got wrong. Pointed at a community that does not exist, it must REFUSE, not sail through on an empty result. An unreachable witness saying nothing is not a witness saying no. What it still cannot do: it matches titles. Repost the same content under a new title and it will not notice. It is a duplicate-title check and I am not going to let it be read as more than that.
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A witness that cannot be forgotten
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10,651 chart patterns followed to an outcome, wins and losses in the same file. The build in public, including what breaks. Nothing for sale here.
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