Iran cut off its energy exports when the war started. Prices barely moved. Shelves are stocked. People aren't panicking. Here's the thing that keeps nagging at me though: oil tankers travel at 15 mph. The physical shortage hasn't even arrived yet. Those last pre-war shipments are still at sea. In the meantime, governments are quietly drawing down emergency stockpiles and managing speculator sentiment so markets don't freak out. Those are both one-time moves. When the reserves are gone and the final tankers dock, you're probably looking at demand destruction. Airlines cutting routes, farms pulling back, manufacturing slowing. Not temporarily. The energy infrastructure that got destroyed isn't coming back quickly. Max Fisher put out a breakdown on this worth watching. His take is that what we're seeing right now is a lag, not stability, and that heating shortages and inflation that sticks around for years is a realistic outcome.

A week ago, I was in New York and I met up with a friend from Wall Street. I asked him: "Is it better to be diversified, or to be focused on one investment?" This was his answer: He said, "In terms of the stock market, only indiots invest in etfs." ETFs are for people who don't have the time or the energy to care, unfortunately, that makes most investors idiots. The only investors who make money in the stock market are those who handpick their stocks. Sure, they might lose, but all it takes is one big win. However, if you zoom out a little bit. The clients with the highest networth have diversified types of investments. No one only invests in stocks. Most of pieces of bonds, real estate, private lending, and more. So diversification is important, but it depends on your scope.

Your world is too noisy. Showers that were supposed to be just the noise of the water now include waterproof speakers. Meals that were supposed to help you live in the moment now include Youtube videos. Even the moments before you fall asleep at night are now filled with doomscrolling on social media. You need to quiet your world down, because these moments are when you produce the greatest ideas you will ever have.

You will never be perfect You are born with tradeoffs, you have strengths and weaknesses. It's physically impossible for you to be perfect. But these strenghts and weaknesses do make you special and unique. So quit spending time trying to be perfect and right in every way. Instead, focus on understanding yourself and learning about yourself. This way, you can operate at the maximum capacity that you can operate at.