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Weekly update
Sold 161 DTE 29/37 Delta /MES futures options this week for 606.34. No other trades taken. Cash balance reflects acceptance of Adverium (ADVM) tender offer. /MES 1 month risk profile shows 5.65% probability of loss on current positions. /ES 1 month risk profile shows 0.00% probability of loss on current positions.
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Weekly update
Tender Offer ADVM acquisition by LILY
Adverium (ADVM) to be acquired by Lilly. $3.56/share + 1 CVR per share entitling holders to an additional $8.91/share under the following conditions: if and when the following milestones are achieved: • Up to $1.78 per CVR in cash payable upon U.S. approval of Ixo-vec prior to the seventh anniversary of closing. • Up to $7.13 per CVR in cash payable upon the first achievement of annual worldwide net sales of Ixo-vec by Lilly, its affiliates or licensees exceeding $1.0 billion dollars prior to the tenth anniversary of closing. Recent price per share is $4.26/share. With the payout of 3.56 per share upon acquisition completion prospective participants can risk $0.80 cents per share with a possible payout of $8.91/share over the next ten years. 10:1 risk reward ratio. Announcement below: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000119312525250031/d234815dex991.htm 14D9 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1501756/000119312525272604/d91171dsc14d9.htm
Error
Some times you make an error. As part of this process I am going over an error that I made with my personal fund. On Wednesday, I was placing a good 'til cancelled (GTC) trade on my most recent /ES futures position. Due to a number of foibles on my end, I accidentally placed a 'market' trade and as a result lost a quick $306.40. This was due to a number of factors. Here are my lessons learned: 1. All my trading platforms should be set to one contract. Part of the issue was that the default for my trading platform was set to 10 contracts on futures options. I have changed this to avoid such stupidity in the future. 2. Trading on a version of the platform that is different than what I am accustomed to causes additional mistakes which lead to losses. 3. Trading while thinking about other things also causes additional issues. The need to be able to concentrate on the trade at hand will help reduce the amount of risks of human error. These are the errors that will cause me to be unprofitable. I am leaving this up for full transparency as this is the reality of trading options and futures for many newbies (I include myself a newbie).
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Dutch Tender Offer White Mountain Insurance Group (WTM)
Lower 1850 Upper 2050 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/776867/000110465925114719/tm2530926-1_sctoi.htm
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Tender Offer for Lava Therapeutics (LVTM)
Offer to purchase LVTM for $1.04 + 1 CVR per share tendered. CVR does not have any assigned amount as of the offer. The tender appears to have completed on 12 Nov 2025. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/791908/000119312525242199/d14452dex99a1a.htm#otptx14452_10
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