15d • GENERAL COMMUNITY CHAT
WHEN THE MARKET SELL OFF - ASK WHY? YOU NEED TO KNOW WHY.
[8:41 PM, 11/20/2025] Jamar James: The selloff was a multi-factor event—a blend of macro tightening fears, profit-taking after record AI earnings, technical positioning imbalances, and cross-market contagion from Asia and crypto.
🧨 1️⃣ Macro and Policy-Driven Factors
🪙 Fed & Interest-Rate Anxiety
Morgan Stanley reversed its dovish tone → now expects no December rate cut, with first cuts delayed to 2026 Q1.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook publicly warned of “possible sharp market declines” due to inflated asset valuations and hedge-fund leverage.
This hawkish turn immediately triggered:
Bond yields ↑ 15 bps intraday.
Dollar index up +0.7 %.
Repricing of futures implied 0 % chance of Dec cut → risk-off rotation.
💵 Rising Yields → Equity Valuation Pressure
Higher yields hurt duration-sensitiv…
[8:42 PM, 11/20/2025] Jamar James: 📅 9️⃣ Looking Ahead (Friday Nov 21)
OPEX Friday: Dealer gamma hedges may amplify volatility; early bounce → likely fade.
Bias: Neutral-to-bearish into weekend unless SPX reclaims 6 665.
Opportunities: Defensive rotation (GLD, SLV, UNH) and selective consumer longs (LULU, WMT).
🔖 Summary
The November 20 sell-off was not one single headline—it was a perfect storm of profit-taking, hawkish macro repricing, and global liquidity stress.
The U.S. market hit “extreme fear,” but structurally remains in a late-stage bull correction, not a bear-market breakdown.
Primary Drivers (Condensed):
Fed hawkish tone & delay of cuts.
NVDA post-earnings exhaustion.
Dealer gamma flip → forced hedging.
Global yields & Japan shock.
Crypto liquidations.
Record put buying / risk hedging.
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WHEN THE MARKET SELL OFF - ASK WHY? YOU NEED TO KNOW WHY.
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