The 250-Year Contract Just Expired
Spoiler: this week, an era that lasted two hundred and fifty years quietly came to an end. Most people haven't noticed yet. This post is about why it matters more than anything else you've read this year. There's a phenomenon psychologists call adaptation ā live next to something abnormal long enough, and you stop noticing it. I catch myself realizing that the news cycle of the past few years has systematically destroyed my ability to be surprised. If you know that feeling of low-grade anxiety, that sense that reality has slipped slightly off its hinges ā you're in good company. There's at least half the planet feeling the same way. But history teaches us one constant: what contemporaries see as catastrophe, their descendants call a starting point. Did the early Christians, or the enthusiasts of 1993 clicking on Mosaic for the first time, realize they were standing at the beginning of a new world? And here we are again, in one of those moments ā only the scale is fundamentally different. There are roughly thirty people on this planet who, right now, in these weeks and months, are making decisions that will shape the world our children live in. Not presidents ā presidents long ago turned into their own genre of tiresome, low-budget reality TV. I'm talking about engineers, scientists, researchers, founders of companies whose names you already know. And these people, one after another, weeks apart, have started saying something out loud. Something that used to only be spoken in tight circles. In March of this year, Jensen Huang ā CEO of NVIDIA, a company the market values at four trillion dollars, whose chips are literally the neurons of an emerging digital civilization ā went on Lex Friedman's podcast. Lex asked him: "When do you think AI will be able to launch, grow, and scale a tech company to a billion dollars? Five years? Ten?" Huang paused for a second and said, almost casually: "I think now. I think we've reached AGI." Last week, Marc Andreessen ā the man who in 1993 wrote the first commercial web browser and essentially brought the internet to the masses ā published a short note. Just one sentence, but what a sentence: "AGI is already here, just unevenly distributed." Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, standing at Davos during a session titled "The Day After AGI," stated that within 6 to 12 months, AI will fully replace the software engineering profession. End-to-end. Sam Altman, in an interview with Axios: "Superintelligence is this close. And it's not a new technology ā it's a restructuring of society."