Stage 1 The initial street protest phase. We've all seen this periodically over the years. None succeeded. All were suppressed. The fact they occurred at all means to me there was and is structural instability within the regime. Stage 2. (This part I used A.I. to help outline indicators--the comments on the RIGHT of each item are my own perceptions and opinions and observations. - grievances aligning into one shared storyline ( me=We see this daily on Goldie/Arman, Tousi live streams and many other news sources. - symbols and phrases stabilizing (me=Common usage of global symbolism like lion/sun flags and old persian symbolism is very evident across all media to those paying attention) - emotional tone converging but not fixed (me=still internal debate over 'what do we do if we win!? All dissidents except MEK communists unified now hoping for Pahlavi to be at least an interim leader until referendums take place and create a new government) - recurring protest patterns (me= Yep. All credible non-regime sources show these same themes leaked out through limited net connections or phone access. The dissidents are more or less united in the fight with the goal, 'the regime MUST GO' - state response inconsistent or uneven (me= not yet true except for some regime diplomats defecting to europe with their families which is the same thing that happened over past years during unrest against regime) - early formations but not self‑organizing (me= this has begun to change with the assault on a PA home of their consular. This is NOT a 'random act of let's join the mob outside...SOMEONE is communicating with somebody to target the enemies inside of Iran who are complicit. I think THIS IS especially important to watch) - digital coordination as primary driver - legitimacy cracks visible but not structural - participants acting as individuals, not units (me= some information shows this may be changing. It's important to move beyond the 'everyone run out in street phase' to the 'let's do the take over institutions phase) - momentum present but not self‑sustaining (me= DANGER POINT DANGER. if internal Iran dissident action stops any outside air support won't matter. Dissidents have few weapons and no air force obviously. You must wait for outside support once usa assets are on scene -

STAGE 3 FRACTURE OF REGIME (commentary all mine-I used a.i. to help with the outline) Stage 3 — Structural Fracture Indicators 1. institutional defections begin (me= already started with a few regime diplomats seeking refugee status in Europe) 2. regime messaging loses coherence (me=possibly true, Regime's own statements seem to support their minority Islamic base but not fooling anybody. e.g. ''the usa and israel organized civilian massacres. Not us'')---wait for the contradictions within itself though for true incoherence 3. enforcement units refuse or delay orders(me=super important. This means local police or others are coming over to dissident side) 4. dissident narrative overtakes regime narrative (this may happen if regime unlocks communications) 5. economic paralysis accelerates (DONE. No news indicators show any short term improvement in internal economic well being. This means the 'average joe on the street is more likely to come to the dissident side) 6. key regime figures flee or go silent (slowly happening. Much more should be hoped for to be meaningful as of today) 7. international tone shifts toward “post‑regime” 8. dissident coordination becomes self‑sustaining (me= CRUCIAL to global optics. More international flags at embassy protests like Isreali flags, usa, canada, uk, Germany, anywhere and everywhere those protests happen. CRUCIAL for global support and visibility. 9. regime responses become improvised 10. symbolic “untouchable” sites lose immunity (me= Trump said, 'take over your institutions'. If bridges, landmarks, museums, police stations, anything important is taken is more PRESSURE on the regime.) 11. fear barrier collapses for a critical mass (me= this is a momentum idea. Keep the people in the streets with mass movements) 12. elite factions turn on each other (me= this happens when people in the regime start worrying about saving their own skin) 13. institutions operate on delay or contradiction (me= this happens when full chaos mode engaged) 14. public compliance drops below functional levels (me= this means every old or disinterested person now submits and says to themselves, 'yes, this regime is DONE') 15. hierarchy fragments into local actors (me= this is late stage in my opinion after the USA begins strikes on key IRGC leadership leaving noone else to do the job or pick up a phone) 16.

@Lucy No. This does not mean any such thing. All indicators point to Trump not 'backing off' as you fear. That is not the correct read of the situation, especially if you understand Trump's history and mindset. I could be wrong, no one has a magic crystal ball to foretell the future. Secondly, China sent cargo shipments before (and does so constantly since the Iran Regime is allied with that dictatorship, same as it is allied with Putin) prior to the Israel and USA coordinated attack on Iran nuclear weapons facilities. No opportunities to topple the Islamic state have been missed. Be patient. Be Pish. Geopolitical caution doesn’t erase internal pressure. Revolutions don’t succeed because a foreign power pushes a button. They succeed when the population reaches the point where the regime can’t control the tempo anymore.