@Philip Coser it’s personal mate. Just have a really good think about it. All I’ll say is the way my mind is I like diversification.

@Philip Coser no worries mate

https://youtube.com/@completeinvesting?si=rSKNThiI-dFKidyv

Agree with @Matthew Thompson im team macro

Here are some IMO real macro reasons why this cycle could be stretching to 5 years instead of 4… The ISM data is the big one. Raoul Pal has been talking about this for a LONG TIME. Bitcoin's traditional 4-year price cycle appears to be shifting to a 5-year macroeconomic rhythm driven by U.S. Treasury policy and global liquidity trends. The ISM Manufacturing PMI has remained below 50 for most of the past 3 years — signalling contraction — and that extended softness has muted sustained risk-asset rallies, delaying the typical post-halving expansion for Bitcoin. The ISM leads Bitcoin the same way financial conditions lead the ISM — by roughly 6 to 9 months. When the ISM crosses above 50 into expansion territory, risk appetite migrates first into Bitcoin, then into ETH, then into large alt L1s, then finally into smaller caps — which is exactly when BTC dominance starts falling. We haven't seen that cross yet. Which means the real altcoin season — and the real Bitcoin blow-off top — likely hasn't happened. Liquidity. The US faces a $9 trillion debt wall maturing in 2026. That creates immense pressure for renewed liquidity from the Federal Reserve — and any form of money printing directly fuels scarce assets like Bitcoin. We are not in a liquidity expansion yet. But when it comes — and it's coming — that's when the real move happens…. according to Yahoo finance The midterm elections. Historically, institutional investors begin reducing positions in policy-sensitive assets 3 to 6 months before midterm elections. If this pattern repeats in 2026, speculative assets including crypto could see systematic de-risking by mid-2026 — driven by risk management constraints more than fundamentals. So the summer of 2026 could be choppy and painful. But what typically follows midterms historically? Risk-on. Fiscal spending. Sentiment shift. I think Trump will do whatever he can to get a good result at the midterms… What I actually believe: The market bottom could occur in Q3–Q4 2026 — October to December — with the real recovery and new uptrend forming into 2027 and beyond. That lines up with the red candle count too — 5 down, potentially 4 or 5 more to go before true capitulation. But…

@Mark Franco Spiller mate it’s so hard to predict what’s coming over next few weeks and months. We are all just doing our best. If you think about it - do your research - read 3-4 investing books - invest long term - you’ll be ok. The more I think about it - i think simplicity is the way forward.