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Rebel Economist (Free)

1.4k members • Free

58 contributions to Rebel Economist (Free)
Errors In The MMT UCL Self Financing State Article
Friends, I read the UCL Self Financing State Article, which MMT points to as ‘proof’ the Bank of England creates new money for the Government to both spend and deficit spend. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4890683 The research on the U.K. Government accounts is fantastic! However, their conclusions do not seem to match their research, it is like they wrote the conclusions before they wrote the paper! Chris Rimmer asked me to write out the mistakes I am seeing in their conclusions, so here it is. Please review, and let me know if you see any mistakes; if so, what do you think am I missing? Or do you agree they made mistakes? Please advise. Thx! 1. The U.K. Parliament Approved Deficit Spending Over The Last 4 Years. · 120B pounds 21/22 · 127B POUNDS 22/23 · 134B POUNDS 23/24 · 146B POUNDS 24/25 P24 : https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9040/CBP-9040.pdf 2. The BoE Has Reduced The Supply Of Reserves Almost 30% The Last Four Years From Around 1T Pounds To Roughly 700T Pounds Today. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/markets/bank-of-england-market-operations-guide/our-objectives Q: How could reserves go down if the Bank of England was issuing new reserves to pay for Government spending or Deficit Spending? 3. The Treasury Debt Management Office (DMO) Sells Gilts Before Funds Are Needed, So Treasury Always Has Excess Reserves On Deposit To Meet All Spending Obligations, And Does Not Need To Borrow From The Bank Of England. https://www.dmo.gov.uk/responsibilities/financing-remit/ 4. The U.K Government And HM Treasury Credit Line With The Bank Of England Shows The Government Has Not Borrowed From The Bank Of England In The Last 15 Years.
0 likes • 3d
@Gerard Borg Do you know what a T account is? Did the paper I sent you have them in it? Did you ever look at my book on kindle (free)? I write T accounts, which have Assets the Left and Liabilities on the right, but since I can’t make T account charts here, I write them like this: BoE BS Expansion +A (+Treasury Loan) +L (+Reserves) HM Treasury BS Expansion +A (+Reserves) +L (BoE Loan) Did the version I sent you have T account? If so, once you see them this should make better sense. The above is what happens when the BoE completes all payments, but HM Treasury does not have enough reserves in their account yo debit to complete all payments, so the BoE has to ‘lend’ the Treasury newly created reserves on the Ways and Means Facility/the Treasury credit line. BOTH the BoE has to expand their BS to issue, and Treasury has to expand their BS to borrow. But this is still Model 2, not model 1. Your shorthand notation is difficult to follow. DEBK means double entry: if the Treasury issues +A and +L Again, that’s model 2, but The Treasury has no need to buy +A like a central bank does, it can do Model 1 like MMT promotes, the Treasury can just carry the negative Equity for the year until they receive taxes the next year. Under a balanced budget the Treasury spends $5T in new money which generates -$5T in negative Equity. +L = -E +$5TL = -$5T Equity When Treasury receives $5 T in tax revenue, that satisfies outstanding $5T in liabilities, and increases Treasury Equity by $5T. -$5TL = +$5T Equity +5T - 5T = 0 +A +L is Model 2, issue by BS expansion, and is what Central Banks do today so they don’t generate negative Equity. If a Treasury was to issue new money to spend, without buying assets, so new A =0, it would he +L = -E or Model 1, which is what MMT explains. then the CB must have +L and +A. That’s Model 2, issuance through BS expansion. So is this my Minsky model here? I can’t read it like this. Can you use my notation for each entity? What’s the order?
0 likes • 3d
Yes, here are the T-Accounts or charts. Hopefully this makes my notation clearer. Now let’s take another look at K-K. What does the ravel ACTUALLY SAY? Let’s start by making sure we agree using my notation. 1. Treasury spends their Assets -Assets (-Spendg) -Equity -(Spendg) 2. Central Bank Liability Swap -Liabilities (-Spendg Treasury) +Liabilities (+Spendg +Reserves Bank) 3. Bank +Assets (+Spendg +Reserves) +Liabilities (+Spendg Deposits) 4. Private Sector +Assets (+Spendg) +Equity (+Spendg) —- 5. Private Sector Tax Payment -Assets (-Tax) -Equity (-Tax) 6. Bank -Assets (-Tax -Reserves) -Liabilities (-Tax -Deposits) 7. Central Bank -Liabilities (-Tax -Reserves bank) +Liabilities (+Tax +Reserves Treasury) 8. Treasury +Assets (Tax) +Equity (Tax) Do you see that this accurately reflects what is written in K-K? Do you see any problems with this?
Unlimited inflation
Hey @Jon Underwood is this new Fed Chair promising unlimited inflation? For me his math isn’t mathing. I keep hearing austerity out of one side of this mouth and rising inflation out of the other. Of course you know I think that finance will s black magic, but we are both concerned about inflation surely. Do you have any idea what’s happening?
0 likes • 14d
Hey @Nadine Gizak Great to hear from you! From what I am hearing, he wants to shrink the size of the Fred’s Balance Sheet, During Covid, Central Banks purchased a lot of bonds on the secondary market, which allowed Treasury to sell new bonds to the private market. The Fed does this through Balance Sheet (BS) expansion via Open Market Operations OMO, or expanding the quantity of the supply of reserve account credits aka ‘reserves’ by buying assets from banks aka QE. Fed BS Expansion: +Assets (+bonds) +Liabilities (+reserves). This allowed the Treasury to expand their BS by selling new bonds to the private market to fund the stimulus. Treasury BS Expansion: +Assets (+reserves) +Liabilities (+bonds) Interestingly, which nobody seems to understand or cover, when these bonds mature, if nothing is done the Treasury pays off Principal and Interest (P&I) to the Fed, which contracts BOTH the Fed BS and Treasury BS, which contracts the supply of reserve account credits aka reserves: Fed BS Contraction -Assets (-bonds) -Liabilities (-reserve account credits or reserves) Treasury BS Contraction: -Assets (-reserve account credits to pay P&I) -Liabilities (-Bonds) The Fed determines optimal supply, which today is thought to be where they are at, around $3T. So if the supply drops below target, the Fed has to either do new OMO, OR, just swap maturing bonds with Treasury for new bonds after the bond market closes and sets the daily price. This is called a paper swap. But, Warsh seems to be signaling that he wants to contract the Fred’s BS, and one easy way to do that is just let Treasury sell new bonds to the public to payoff old bonds held by the Fed, which both reduces the Fed BS AND reduces the supply of reserves. Banks will sat the payment function of the Fed will not function properly if the Fed reduces reserves, but the Fed is paying Interrst On Resetve Balances IORB for banks to park reserves. If they quit doing that, banks will buy more Tressuries, which will drive rates down, which will grow the real economy. Do we want to maximize GDP? Yes!
MMT responds to their critics
This is a great clarifying piece from the thought leaders of MMT responding to their critics. They make the point to differentiate between a generalized description of money mechanics vs. specific implementation like the U.S. model. As has pointed out in the past, they clearly understand how the U.S. system clearly works under today’s self selected fiscal and legal constraints, such as the TGA must be funded prior to spending, no Treasury overdraft at the Fed, and the Fed cannot buy bonds directly from the Treasury. Supporters of MMT often conflate the need for the Fed/CB to create new Reserves by spending or lending, with the Treasury creating new reserves by Gov spending, but which the authors do not. Anything here anybody would like to point out or discuss? Anything anybody would like to add?
0 likes • May 15
@Gerard Borg remember, New Reserve creation always means Central Bank Balance Sheet expansion..
0 likes • May 16
@Gerard Borg So to be clear. Do you agree that the McLeay paper "only describes one-half of the monetary engine." No. “and it fails to address the fiscal side of the ledger” Explain what this means to you. “where government deficits create money directly” This ‘statement’ is not backed up by any math or accounting. And when we check the forensic accounting, there is no evidence that deficit spending increases either deposits or reserves, other than what I have outlined when banks buy the bonds and the Gov spends. I am not talking philosophy, I am discussing the math. 1. From an accounting perspective, an issuer can issue currency as a Liability with no corresponding Asset acquisition, which is spending their Equity: Equity = Assets -Liabilities +Liabilities (+reserves/fiat) = 0 Assets - Equity +Fiat = - Equity Central Banks never do this or they become insolvent within days. 2. Or an issuer can expand their Balance Sheet to buy new assets, which creates new money. Equity = Assets - Liabilities 0 = HQLA - Fiat +Liabilities (+reserves/fiat) = +Assets (+HQLA) You have never provided an accounting framework showing how in the U.S. today, new money is created by deficit spending. In England, the Treasury can borrow if they ALSO expand their Balance Sheet along with the BoE. So the BoE is creating new money through Gov deficit spending. Unfortunately, the BoE says this has not happened in 18 years. That means it is not required, the Gov is deficit spending every year, but without creating any new Fiat, and as mentioned banks create a very small amount of new deposits, 2% - 5% of the bond sale. This is not the Gov creating new money to spend, this is the result of the Gov incurring negative equity through new financial assets they owe, and transferring equity to the public. But the new equity is NOT the bonds, the public buys those as an asst swap, agreed? The new equity is the new deposits the public would not have had without Gov deficit spending, and those new deposits are the result of the Gov borrowing existing money from the public, then spending it +Equity public, and long run the government has to repay the public -Equity Gov.
Where MMT Goes Wrong…
The Self-Financing State: An Institutional Analysis of Government Expenditure, Revenue Collection and Debt Issuance Operations in the United Kingdom - Review and Critique Andrew Berkeley, Josh Ryan-Collins, Richard Tye, Asker Voldsgaard & Neil Wilson (05 Sep 2025) Journal of Economic Issues, 59:3, 852-880, DOI: 10.1080/00213624.2025.2533726. Link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/00213624.2025.2533726 The paper "The Self-Financing State: An institutional analysis of government expenditure, revenue collection and debt issuance operations in the United Kingdom" (2022) by Andrew Berkeley et al. provides a remarkably detailed mapping of the UK’s fiscal-monetary mechanics: “This article provides the first detailed institutional analysis of the UK government’s expenditure, revenue collection, and debt issuance processes. The paper is often cited by MMT supporters as the source or academic truth or ‘proof’ that Government spending is financed through new money creation, not tax revenue or bond sales: “We show that public expenditure is always financed through money creation rather than taxation or debt issuance.” However, if HM Treasury is not spending tax receipts or bond sales revenue, then the BoE by law would be forced to create new reserves and new fiat money when crediting the reserve accounts of banks of Government payees. This requires the Treasury to BORROW new reserves from teh BoE, which requires Balance Sheet expansion of both the Treasury and the BoE to create new reserves. However, the data shows for the last 18 years shows zero Treasury borrowing from the BoE, and 100% of Government spending has been paid for by the BoE crediting the reserve account of the bank of the Gov payee, and then debiting Treasury accounts of funds already on deposit via a BoE “Liability Swap”. If there is no borrowing from the BoE to complete Treasury spending, no BoE BS expansion to lend, no Treasury BS expansion to borrow from the BoE, then there is no new fiat money creation.
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Is this BoE article the best article ever written by a central bank on modern money mechanics?
To me, this is the most iconic article on money ever written, and left us is with this:: “Lending creates deposits” That’s the beginning of the end for traditional neocon models…or maybe just the end! It was so powerful I extrapolated it into a 300+ page book with 40 charts: https://a.co/d/4nRyMJs What have you read by a central bank that you thought was insightful? Please post links or papers, feel free to share commentary…
0 likes • Dec '25
@Demetrios Gizelis spittin’ straight talk! NBT - Nothin’ But the Truth! You should publish this somewhere… Amen brother!
0 likes • Feb 16
@Ellen Braddock Thx Ellen. Have you read the attached article? Were you aware ‘Banks create deposits when they lend.’
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