Today’s CPI report summary US CPI Report Summary - September 2025 (Released October 24, 2025) The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the September CPI data this morning amid a government shutdown, prioritizing it for Social Security cost-of-living adjustments (COLA). Data collection relied more on online surveys, potentially introducing some sampling variability, but the report shows inflation ticking up slightly due to tariff-sensitive goods. Key Headlines: - **Headline CPI (All Items)**: Rose 0.4% month-over-month (MoM, seasonally adjusted), matching August's pace. On a 12-month basis, it increased to 3.1% (up 0.2 pp from August's 2.9%). - **Core CPI (Excluding Food & Energy)**: Up 0.3% MoM (unchanged from August) and 3.1% year-over-year (YoY, flat from prior month). - **Chained CPI (Broader Measure)**: Increased 0.3% not seasonally adjusted for the month; 2.7% YoY. Sector Breakdown: - **Upward Pressures**: Goods prices rose due to pass-through from new tariffs (e.g., imports), with notable gains in apparel (+0.5%) and household furnishings (+0.4%). Gasoline edged up 0.2% amid geopolitical tensions. - **Downward Pressures**: Services cooled, with airfares (-1.2%) and lodging (-0.5%) declining after August surges. Food prices were flat MoM (+2.4% YoY), while energy overall dipped 0.1%. - **Shelter (Largest Component)**: +0.3% MoM, contributing over half the headline gain; rent up 0.4% YoY. Implications: - Inflation remains "temporarily hot" but aligned with expectations, unlikely to derail the Fed's anticipated 25 bps rate cut at its October 28-29 meeting (98.9% probability per CME FedWatch). - For 2026 Social Security COLA: Based on Q3 CPI-W data, expect ~2.7% adjustment (up from 2025's 2.5%), benefiting 72.5M+ recipients. - Broader Context: This caps a summer of accelerated inflation (August's 0.4% MoM was the year's highest), but economists see moderation ahead as tariffs fade and supply chains stabilize. October's report quality may suffer from shutdown disruptions (75%+ data missing in prior shutdowns).