Breaking down real rates

When will Housing hit bottom? The million dollar question. Knowing what we know about the real rates coming down or possibly going negative, I could confidently say yes it has bottomed. But things can change fast and if gas prices and fear of economic chaos diminish, I feel that reduction of inflation expectations would trigger the downturn. So backwards from how people see the economy. The elevated inflation expectations lowers the real rates making the economy less restricted and the finacial system could possibly find themselves negative with the real rate, stealth stimulus. https://www.housingwire.com/articles/positive-housing-demand-leads-to-inventory-almost-going-negative-yoy/

“Ongoing supply chain disruptions led to a dramatic rise in inflation and inflation expectations in 2021, contributing to an accommodative monetary policy stance.” https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/economic-bulletin/current-monetary-policy-may-be-less-restrictive-than-it-seems/ It was a matter of keeping the inflation expectations elevated by any means possible.

Just brainstorming here because I am just wondering what financial decision to make next, and I feel like I am turning into an economist here... I know conspiracy theories aren’t allowed, but just think critically with me. In terms of global economics, I want to ask this question thought possible credible threat theories. What does it do to asset allocation? I am having dreams trying to connect these dots. A few years ago, we conveniently had the pandemic, which fractured the supply chain. Last year, we had the bird flu, which, through the rumor mill, never really wasn’t an issue. So food cost intention pushed through the roof. Now, we have oil being fractured through war. This raises the question of what would have happened to stocks if this hadn’t occurred. I think what next possible credible threat theory? If credit is tight and people are living off of credit, what is being suppressed for economic benefit for the elite? Intentionally pushing prices higher for longer. Also, economically, I should really I ask AI, but I was hoping you all can help me brainstorm this theory. I just want to get ahead, tired of being left behind …..

As we discuss about how housing becomes a luxury in an economy thats diving into luxuries, I keep seeing everyone frame the problem as "renting vs buying". But for me, all I see is luxury rentals and the real comparison should be having your own housing vs living with family like they do in other countries that have great inequality. In practice thats what I see: more people living with parents/in-laws after marriage, living "in the basement" after college, etc. So why are we still comparing rent cost to mortgages, according to the Cantillon effect hasnt that become redundant?