14h • General discussion
R vs K
In my last post, I wrote about the realization that changed how I do business.
The closest economic analogy for AI (according to AI) isn’t a technological revolution.
It’s a mass extinction.
No. AI doesn’t wipe out humanity.
But it does wipe out most businesses (like 75%+).
And it does so in a very short timeframe.
My last post was about the extinction event.
Today is about the survivors.
The 25%.
Who are the 25%?
The answer changed my outlook on business entirely.
There have been five mass extinction events in earth’s history (that we know of).
In every instance, the living things that survived all had one thing in common…
In ecology, there’s an old framework for how species survive:
K-selection vs. R-selection.
K-selected species reproduce later, produce much fewer offspring, and invest way more into each one.
Examples: elephants, whales, gorillas, bears, you.
They tend to be larger, live longer, mature slower, and far more invested in learning, development, and parental care.
They evolve primarily in relatively stable environments where resources are limited and competition is fierce.
Their advantage isn’t speed.
It’s optimization.
They make fewer bets and invest more heavily in each one.
They develop deeper capabilities.
They become extremely good at competing within the environment they inhabit.
Think of them as nature’s specialists.
They pick a game and get very, very good at playing it.
Now, compare them to…
R-selected species reproduce earlier, produce way more offspring, and invest way less into each one.
Examples: mice, rabbits, flies, mosquitoes, frogs, fish that lay lots of eggs.
They tend to mature earlier, reproduce faster, have shorter lifespans, and invest far less in parental care.
They evolved primarily in unstable, unpredictable, rapidly changing environments.
Their advantage isn’t optimization.
It’s optionality.
They make lots of bets and invest very little in each one.
They reproduce quickly.
They spread widely.
And when the environment changes, they don’t need every bet to work.
They just need one of them to.
Think of them as nature’s experimenters.
They don’t pick one game and spend years perfecting it.
They play lots of games, very quickly, and let the environment tell them what works.
Now, lets peer at this through our economic lens…
In a stable and predictable environment, you want to build a K-selected business.
In fact, the best business advice in the world all points to exactly this:
Niche down.
Specialize.
Go deep.
Choose your “One Thing.”
Great advice.
Canon, even.
For a stable environment.
But, are we in a stable environment?
Obviously, obviously not. (Yes, I said obviously twice. That’s not a typo.)
So, what does that mean?
It means you’re building a K-selected business in an R-selected world.
Tomorrow, I’ll talk about what it means to build an R-selected business.
P.S. If you just want to skip to the end, I’m hosting an in-person event built around this new reality.
It’s two days, October 15th & 16th, here in Phoenix, AZ.
It’s $2k all-in (meals included). Founders & Entrepreneurs only. Come spend a day rebuilding the way you operate around this new reality.
DM me if you’re interested.
P.P.S.
I write every post and comment myself. No AI. No VAs.
Share = Support 🙏
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R vs K
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