VIX hit 28 this week — here's the only trade I took (and why I passed on the rest)
📌 The Setup Iran conflict escalating. VIX at 28.5 at the open, settling around 28 during the session. NFP and unemployment data both came in worse than expected. The market crashed after the news, created a liquidity pocket at the prior day's low around the 20 level. Classic long setup? Yes. Did I take it? No. 💡 The Reasoning With VIX at 28, a tight stop-loss on that long would've been a guaranteed fakeout. The intraday range was too wide. To give the trade proper room, I'd need a stop that completely broke the risk-reward math. So I passed — and kept watching. Over 90 minutes of patience. Most of us (myself included, earlier in my career) would've traded out of boredom by minute 20. 📊 The Trade Liquidity started building just above day VWAP. That was the signal. I placed a short exactly at day VWAP — same anchor I've been using all week. Triggered. Take profit in seconds. Platform closed. One trade. Profitable. Third green day in a row. ✅ Key Points - VIX above 20 = reduce position size, no exceptions - VIX above 25 = one trade maximum, highest confidence setup only - Passing on a technically valid setup is a skill, not a failure - Friday with a profitable week = raise the threshold to trade even higher 🎯 Debate Question When VIX spikes above 25, do you cut size and wait for VWAP — or do you actually find that high-volatility sessions give you better setups? What does your data say?