CPI just misses, consensus of 4.8, actual comes out at 4.6. Yes it's a miss so the algo selling is real. BUT inflation has jumped 1% in a quarter. The RBA wont be looking at 0.2% shy of consensus thinking inflation is under control here. They will be thinking, yes this confirms we need to hike in May. Algos react on data not on the full picture, the full picture is very clear, institutions won't be selling AUD after a 0.2% miss. More likely they will buy the pull back. Poly market still pricing an 85% chance of a hike in May down 2% from yesterday's post but generally no change here. The masses are still expecting a hike and I have to agree. We broke out above the range last night and now we're just testing the top of that range which is perfect technicals. As long as price holds above the range there's no reason why this trade won't hit through the rest of this week to the start of next. Any questions please drop them below!

Been holding on tight to AUDCAD now for over a week. 185bps in rate differential between the two currencies. RBA actively hiking, BOC just finished a cutting cycle. Both net exporters of oil so that largely washes out the war volatility. AUD CPI tomorrow morning BKK time will be the make or break for this trade. A hot CPI print and we push above the resistance. A weak CPI print and straight to stop loss. Why? Because not only is the macro data then looking towards the RBA holding rates and not hiking them. But also there's a record net positions of long AUD right now which will flood out of the markets. My expectation is a hot print with oil up inflation should rise. Poly market has it priced at 87% change of a rate hike in May. ASX has it as 74% so odds are in favour of the trade. Any questions please drop them below (This is not a signal and is not financial advice. This post is for educational purposes only and you absolutely must do your own independent analysis before taking any trades. GRIT Trading Academy takes no responsibility for any losses that may occur from educational content)