Aug 12 (edited) • General discussion
Why QB Jordan Love is Undervalued this Year
1) Proven ceiling (2023) + acceptable 2024 floor
- In his first full year as a starter, Love threw 32 TDs, 4,159 yards with a 96.1 rating and finished top-5 in total fantasy points among QBs in 2023.
- 2024 dipped (injuries, run-heavy tilt), yet he still logged 25 TDs, 96.7 rating in 15 games—roughly mid-QB2 in points per game.
2) Market discount = upside leverage
- Current ADP hovers around QB16, ~129 overall—the mid/late rounds—despite top-10 upside already demonstrated.
3) Weapons are deeper than ever
- Green Bay returns Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, adds 1st-round WR Matthew Golden, and has a two-TE punch (Tucker Kraft, Luke Musgrave) with Josh Jacobs in the backfield. Depth chart + camp notes point to a loaded supporting cast.
4) Scheme/outlook argue for passing bounce-back
- DraftSharks’ 2025 preview flags less run-heavy expectations after last year's ground lean; a modest bump in attempts re-unlocks his 2023 TD rate path.
5) Talent indicators remain positive
- ESPN’s traits piece ranks Love top-10 in arm strength, underscoring playmaking potential when protected and healthy.
What happened in 2024 (and why it’s fixable)
- Love played through lower-body injuries; from his return (Weeks 4–17) he was QB14 in PPG, i.e., serviceable even while banged up. FantasyPros notes the injuries and still pegs him as a viable rebound candidate.
- Packers skewed unusually run-heavy with Jacobs; analysts expect reversion toward balance, which helps Love’s volume/TDs.
Price vs. payoff
- ADP QB16 places him squarely in the “wait on QB” zone many analysts endorse; you can build elite RB/WR depth, then take Love for upside (and pair with a safe streamer).
Risks to note (and how to hedge)
- Schedule projects on the tougher side; consider drafting a second QB with early favorable matchups.
- Health/consistency: if camp reports trend negative, be ready with a late pivot.
Draft plan (how to play it)
- Target Love at QB14–18 range; if he slides to rounds 10–12 in 1-QB redraft, that’s ideal. Pair with a streamer type and lean on matchup plays early.
- Stack optionality: late shares of Reed/Doubs/Kraft can add weekly ceiling if you like correlation.
Bottom line: You’re paying a mid-QB2 price for a passer who already delivered a top-5 fantasy season two years ago, now with better weapons and likely more pass volume. That’s textbook value.
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Why QB Jordan Love is Undervalued this Year
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