Aug 12 (edited) • General discussion
Justin Fields Is Undervalued at His 2025 ADP — Here’s Why
TL;DR
Fields’ rushing (“Konami code”) gives him a weekly floor few pass-only QBs can match, and his current mid/late-round ADP prices in the risk but not the ceiling. If you miss the elite tier, he’s the cheapest path to QB1 outcomes.
1) The Market Price is Wrong
Multiple outlets have Fields going outside the top-12 QBs (Round 10–12 range): CBS recently tagged him QB13 around pick ~107–110, while FTN flagged him as QB17 in Round 11—both calling him a value versus their ranks. That’s classic arbitrage.
2) Rushing = Fantasy Cheat Code
Fields owns league-winning ground production:
- 1,143 rushing yards & 8 TDs in 2022 (second-most rush yards by a QB in NFL history).
- In 2024 he started six games and still logged 289 rush yards and 5 rush TDs—a QB-best on the Steelers. Those scores tilt matchups.
Why it matters: rushing yards are worth more than passing yards in most formats (10 rush yards = 1 pt vs. 25 pass yards = 1 pt), and total TDs (pass + rush) correlate strongest with fantasy QB scoring. Dual-threat profiles simply give you more paths to points.
3) Situation Upgrade & Play Volume
Fields now heads the Jets, where beat coverage and national outlets expect a fresh offense and OL emphasis; even skeptics concede his legs create fantasy utility. If the Jets lean into RPO/play-action with Garrett Wilson and a healthy run game, Fields’ designed rushes + scrambles can buoy weekly totals while the passing grows.
The league’s own fantasy desk just listed Fields as a 2025 breakout candidate, reinforcing the upside case at a depressed cost.
4) Ceiling Proof of Concept
We’re not projecting in a vacuum—Fields has already produced elite fantasy stretches. Across his Chicago run (and spot starts since), he posted spike weeks fueled by rushing volume. Even in a modest 2024 passing sample (1,106 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT), the rushing TDs kept him streamable and often startable.
5) Counterpoints (and Why the ADP Bakes Them In)
Concerns about processing and pressure handling remain (coaches ranked him in the Tier-3/4 fringe). That uncertainty explains the discount. But fantasy rewards rushing and TDs more than pristine pocket traits; at Round 10–12, you’re buying asymmetric upside with an easy out (stream or cut) if it doesn’t click.
Draft Plan (Actionable)
- Formats: Smash in 1-QB redraft after the elite tier, especially PPR with 4-pt pass TDs.
- Builds: Pair with a stable QB2 or late streamer. His bye-week/variance management is easy at the price.
- Stacks: Cheap mini-stacks with Jets pass-catchers in best ball; in managed leagues, don’t force stacks—his legs are the stack.
Why Mobile QBs Bend the Scoring System
- Scoring leverage: 10 rush yds = 1 pt vs. 25 pass yds = 1 pt.
- Sticky volume: designed runs + scrambles provide bankable touches.
- Red-zone equity: rushing TDs are worth 6—equal to RB/WR scores and more stable than passing TD variance.
Bottom Line
Fields’ ADP sits where his real-life questions are priced in, but his fantasy profile (rushing + TD equity) remains intact—and historically that’s the fastest path to QB1 finishes at a discount. If you’re drafting for ceiling without paying elite-QB prices, Fields is the value.
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Justin Fields Is Undervalued at His 2025 ADP — Here’s Why
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