1d • General discussion
Is it still profitable to mine Bitcoin?
hey hey 👋
Is it still worth mining BTC ?? I hear this often and my initial response has been "probably not", based on the upfront cost of the mining rigs, power consumption, staying up to date with the latest miners and generally having a decent amount of knowledge to set it all up !
However I was recently challenged again around this, in particular with reference to cloud mining. The benefits being NO upfront cost, (other than purchasing in to the pool) and NO setup required, could it be a long term passive income option?? I may have just changed my viewpoint based on the following thought experiment 😎:
Projected BTC Yield Over 3 Years
With a $1,000 investment yielding ~0.000055 BTC/day initially (at ~$92,000 BTC and current difficulty ~130T), total BTC mined over 1,095 days drops under realistic scenarios due to Bitcoin difficulty rising every ~2 weeks (2016 blocks).
Key Assumptions
- Base hash rate: Fixed for your contract (no decay modeled, guaranteed uptime but difficulty erodes output).
- Difficulty growth: Conservative 5% per 2-week epoch (historical avg ~5-10% post-2017); aggressive 10%. Network currently at 130T, projected to 149T+ in 1 year.
- No halving impact (next ~2028); ignores fees, cloud mining cuts (~10-20%). BTC/day = initial × (initial_diff / current_diff)
Potential Results
Flat scenario (0% difficulty growth):
- Avg daily BTC: 0.000055
- Total BTC mined: 0.0602
- USD value at $1M BTC: $60,200
Conservative scenario (5% growth per 2-week epoch, ~4.1x difficulty multiplier):
- Avg daily BTC: 0.0000134
- Total BTC mined: 0.0147
- USD value at $1M BTC: $14,700
Aggressive scenario (10% growth per 2-week epoch, ~17.4x difficulty multiplier):
- Avg daily BTC: 0.0000032
- Total BTC mined: 0.0035
- USD value at $1M BTC: $3,500
The conservative case (~0.015 BTC total) remains most realistic based on historical 5-10% epoch growth patterns, yielding 15x ROI in sats at $1M BTC despite erosion from rising network difficulty (~130T currently).
This means that mining steadily for 3 years with your $1000 investment in a mining cloud pool could accumulate around 0.015 BTC, and if BTC indeed reaches $1 million, that mined BTC would be worth over $14,700 showing significant potential upside, even as the difficulty levels for BTC mining increase.
Let me know in the comments your thoughts on this that every $1000 invested now could potentially be worth $14700 within the next 3-5 yrs.
I'm researching some trusted and audited mining pools now and will look to get a new classroom article in to to premium section shortly. - Nick
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Is it still profitable to mine Bitcoin?
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