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Mon 5/11 Daily Report
These reports are generated off the previous trading days eod values. Therefore, pay attention to pre-market and adjust to them on a Monday. Macro Weather: 🌊 [RIP TIDES] The market is flashing a risk-on sentiment with major US indices and Bitcoin pushing higher. However, we are seeing a slight uptick in volatility (VIX at 19.15) alongside rising crude oil, signaling an undercurrent of market caution. The Path Engine: Directional Targets - 🟢 Top Bulls (GU/HU): Tech, Semis, and broad indices are leading the charge. Look for entries on SPY, QQQ, SMH, XLK, NVDA, AMD, plus our core holdings COHR and NBIS. - 🔴 Top Bears (GD/HD): Select tech are showing weakness. Watch for short setups on META, NFLX, and PLNT. The Juice: High Premium Targets (IVR > 40) Volatility is providing some great setups for premium sellers today. Here are the top actionable tickers for Short Puts/Calls: - AMD (IVR 107) - Sell Short Put - NBIS (IVR 97) - Sell Short Put / Call - SMH (IVR 97) - Sell Short Put - XLK (IVR 88) - Sell Short Put - PLNT (IVR 85) - Sell Short Call - COHR (IVR 81) - Sell Short Put / Call Core Holdings News Fast-Track - COHR is catching aggressive analyst upgrades following a massive earnings beat fueled by a 41% surge in AI datacenter demand. - FCX is riding high on robust Q1 earnings and strong global copper prices. - NBIS is seeing heightened momentum as the market anticipates their Q1 print and updates on their $18B capex deployment.
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Sharing morning research
Im a little behind. I'll be lookin at charts at 10:30am. Here is my morning report. Let me know if you use this to help with any trades today. If so, post in community section. rading Daily Report (Gem) Custom Gem Trading Daily Report Date: Tuesday, May 5, 2026 | Time: 10:07 AM EDT Analyst Mindset: Expected Value (EV) focus. Mathematical probabilities dictate the play; we do not guess. Futures & Macros Overview - VIX: Current at 19.54, down slightly from the previous 19.99 (Δ -0.45). Volatility remains elevated above the 18 threshold but is currently contracting, holding off any extreme rip tide warnings. - Market Influence: With the VIX hovering near 20, premium remains rich in selected sectors, but the contraction suggests standard path logic holds without needing immediate macro-hedging overrides. The Path Engine: Entry Logic Signals 🟢 Bull Entries (Long/Bullish) - SPY (GU) - Meets Path A. - QQQ (GU) - Meets Path A. - IWM (GU) - Meets Path A. - SMH (GU) - Meets Path A. - XLK (GU) - Meets Path A. - AMD (GU) - Meets Path A. - AMZN (GU) - Meets Path A. - AVGO (GU) - Meets Path A. - LUMN (GU) - Meets Path A. - NUE (GU) - Meets Path A. - NVO (GU) - Meets Path A. - GOOGL (HU) - Meets Path B. - HPE (HU) - Meets Path B. - SLB (HU) - Meets Path B. 🔴 Bear Entries (Short/Bearish) - META (GD) - Meets Path A. - NFLX (GD) - Meets Path A. - FCX (HD) - Meets Path B. - IAU (HD) - Meets Path B. - TLT (HD) - Meets Path B. - AA (HD) - Meets Path B. (Note: NVDA triggered the W-Rule due to conflicting HD badge with Green Stop Light and ltu trend. MSFT explicitly labeled conflict. Both benched from directional entries.) The GNG Matrix: Options & Volatility Actionable Premium (Today IVR >= 35) - SELL Short Puts (Bullish/Elevated IVR): SMH, XLK, AMD, AVGO, HPE, LUMN, NUE, NVO, SLB. - SELL Short Calls (Core Longs/Elevated IVR): CVX, HPE, LUMN, MSFT, NUE, VZ. Actionable Buy Premium (Directional Signal + IVR < 30)
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Meta (Caution)
To learn to read the charts, this has AI breaking down the why's. Alright—here’s the straight read on this META 1H chart without fluff: What just happened (the real signal) - You had a clean trend → distribution → breakdown sequence. - That sharp dump on the right wasn’t random—it’s a volatility expansion + structure failure. - Your system actually caught it: Stoplight flipped RED Price lost VWAP + key MAs Momentum block shows DL Net deeply negative (-23.6) and expanding downside That’s not noise—that’s regime shift. - Price is below VWAP (≈609) → bearish control - Lower highs forming after the flush - Weak bounce = no real reclaim attempt This is not reversal behavior. This is bear flag / base building unless proven otherwise. What actually matters next You’ve got 3 actionable zones: 1. Reclaim zone (bull case trigger) - 609–611 (VWAP cluster) - If price reclaims and holds → shift back to neutral / long bias 2. Chop / trap zone - 600–609 - Expect fakeouts, low conviction moves - This is where overtrading kills you 3. Continuation zone (bear case) - Loss of 600 → opens continuation lower - Especially if momentum expands again like the prior dump What your system is telling you (correctly) - - VWRSI = 13.66 → extreme downside pressure - ADX rising earlier → trend strength confirmed before move - DL Net negative + expanding → directional conviction DOWN That combination = you don’t fade this blindly - Trend signal + wrong location = trap - Trend signal + structure break = A+ trade Clean playbook from here - No longs below VWAP - Shorts only: On failed pops into VWAP Or breakdown continuation under 600 - If reclaim happens: Flip bias fast (don’t argue with it) Bottom line: Until proven otherwise, this is sell strength, not buy dips.
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Meta (Caution)
Signal
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MSFT 3/30/26
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MSFT 3/30/26
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