Nov '25 • 💻 Applied Modeling
COP30 - Energy security and critical minerals
COP30 , the climate conference, is taking place in Brazil . A key topic under discussion has been Energy security.
Energy security is maybe the top concern.
Energy security used to just mean ensuring a steady and adequate supply of traditional fuels, like oil and gas. However, the meaning has expanded. It is now a core issue of economic and national security. It involves managing a wide array of new threats and vulnerabilities, including those affecting electricity grids, infrastructure, and technology supply chains. The report says the new goals for energy security must be diversity, flexibility, and resilience.
The report states that a major new risk to energy security comes from critical minerals
These are not fuels, but they are the raw materials essential for building modern energy and defense technology, such as:
- Batteries
- Electric vehicles (EVs)
- Power grids
- AI chips
- Jet engines and defense systems
The key risk is that the supply chain for these minerals is dangerously concentrated.
The "single country" that the report identifies as dominating the supply of these minerals is China.
China is the dominant refiner for 19 out of the 20 strategic minerals related to energy.
It holds an average market share of around 70% in refining for these minerals.
This concentration risk is no longer just theoretical. The report says it has become a "hard reality," noting China's new export controls on items like rare earth elements and battery components.
Energy is now a core issue of economic and national security. Energy is now at the heart of today's geopolitical tensions.
As of November 2025, "more than half of these strategic minerals are subject to some form of export controls," showing this is an active and growing risk.
The security concern isn't just about where the raw minerals are mined; it's about who processes and refines them into the high-purity materials needed for manufacturing. This means that even if the raw ore (the "rock") is mined in Australia, Africa, or South America, it is highly likely that it must be sent to China to be purified and turned into the usable material needed for batteries or computer chips. If that supply of refined minerals is disrupted, it wouldn't be a minor inconvenience.
Building new, diversified supply chains is not a quick or easy fix.
Fixing this vulnerability will not happen on its own. It states that "market forces alone will not deliver" a diverse and resilient supply chain; it will require a "concerted policy effort" from governments to build new partnerships and projects
Sources:
(1): Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/97dda5a5-0dc6-4adf-a88a-643c9265ab73
(2) Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-11-14/cop30-how-to-fill-the-climate-void-left-by-the-white-house?embedded-checkout=true
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COP30 - Energy security and critical minerals
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