Population growth is falling in Canada

Nov '24 • Strategy

Adjust your models accordingly. A bit of a bumpy ride ahead, but at least we have an understanding of what it looks like now.

I predicted this was the case, and that Q3 population growth data would come in low, and explained my logic here: https://danielfoch.substack.com/p/what-if-immigration-was-already-falling

I would say we will see population growth slow to the historically targeted 1-2% by end of 2025. Both Pierre and JT want to be in that channel where growth is sustainable. They both know our economy relies on population growth over 1%.

Rents could will growing again after that point.

I'm no longer modelling rent growth for the next 2 lease terms.

The only X factor in the meantime is inflation. If it returns, all bets are off.

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