Making sense of different valuations for GE
  1. The Setup — GE's transformation story, the impressive fundamentals, and the 37-analyst consensus
  2. DCF — OVERVALUED, $109 vs $302, with honest discussion of assumptions and the MEDIUM confidence limitation
  3. Peer Comparison — PREMIUM at 73rd percentile, P/FCF at 100th percentile, with the full 6-company table
  4. The Dissent — Perplexity/Wall Street BUY case presented fairly with its own data card
  5. Understanding the Disagreement — The core analytical argument: DCF asks "what is it worth?" vs analysts ask "what will others pay?" — framed as two valid but different questions
  6. The Number the Street Ignores — ROE vs ROIC deep-dive (45.9% vs 8.6%), explaining leverage effects
  7. The Cyclical Question — Pro-cyclical commercial aviation at 43x FCF vs counter-cyclical defense peers at lower multiples
  8. Takeaway — "Great business ≠ good investment at this price. Know which game you're playing."
  9. Methodology — Transparent about data sources, limitations (missing Occam score), and the educational disclaimer
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John Gillespie
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Making sense of different valuations for GE
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