In this discussion, we break down the rapidly escalating situation in the Middle East and the potential for a comprehensive war involving the United States, Israel, and the Islamic Republic. We start by analyzing breaking reports that Iraq’s Hezbollah brigades are preparing for “martyrdom operations” and mobilizing to back Iran, signaling that the regime expects an imminent attack. We take a deep dive into the betting markets (Polymarket), which show a significant jump in the odds of a US strike on Iran by the end of February. But is the White House aligned? We discuss the reported divide among Donald Trump’s advisors: while JD Vance argues that the President’s "red lines" must mean something, Jared Kushner and Steve Whitcoff are reportedly opposed to an attack, potentially due to business ties with Gulf nations that prefer stability. We also analyze Trump’s shifting psychology—moving away from seeking a Nobel Peace Prize and towards cementing a legacy of strength, even if that means war. The conversation shifts to the strategy on the ground. If the US and Israel do not intervene directly, what is "Plan B" for the Iranian revolution? We debate the logistics of arming the population. While smuggling weapons is difficult due to border security, Armin argues that a more effective strategy involves US airstrikes targeting the security perimeters of the regime’s own weapon warehouses, allowing the people to raid them. We discuss the risks of unarmed civilians facing the IRGC and why the regime's "demographic engineering"—attempting to replace rebellious Iranians with loyalists from neighboring countries—is a sign of their desperation. Finally, we look at the geopolitical chessboard. Will China intervene to save the Mullahs? The consensus is that while Beijing enjoys cheap oil, they view the Islamic Republic as a "dying horse" and will likely restrict their support to posturing rather than direct military involvement. Topics covered in this video: - Hezbollah brigades mobilizing to support the Islamic Republic. - Polymarket odds: The increasing likelihood of a US strike by Feb 28th. - The Trump Cabinet Split: JD Vance (Pro-Strike) vs. Kushner (Anti-Strike). - Trump’s "Unchained" Ego: Why he no longer cares about the Peace Prize. - US Military Power vs. Political Capital: Why democracy slows down war. - Arming the Revolution: Smuggling vs. Raiding domestic armories. - China’s Calculus: Why they won’t fight a war for Iran. - Regime Tactics: The shocking plan to grant residency to foreigners for temporary marriages. - Armin’s interview with Israel’s Channel 12.

Will Israel back down? Will it be taken over by a new administration? Will Hamas disarm? What really will happen?

I never get tired watching this video 😂 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7YsNR4pgM4

We dive deep into the post-revolution timeline and the realities of a transitional government in Iran. We discuss the strategic and moral implications of capturing regime leaders like Ali Khamenei versus immediate elimination, and how these decisions impact the collapse of the IRGC. The conversation also covers the critical infrastructure challenges facing a free Iran, specifically the water crisis, and how alliances with Israel and advanced desalination technology will be vital for rebuilding. We built this community for people who want to talk, not just scroll. The real action happens in our group calls, where we argue ideas in good faith and tackle the week's biggest global events. 📅 Check the Schedule & Join Here: https://www.skool.com/libertypolitics/calendar