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Missed today's live session? Replay + key points (9 Nov)
Missed today's live session? The full replay (43 minutes) is in the Classroom under Live Session Replays, with chapters, lessons, the market map and the full transcript: https://www.skool.com/kenmacro-trading-club-8088/classroom/e757f5bb?md=c0baf9548a9d4aef852523dc1f8f5538 CPI is tomorrow, so we set up the week. Here is what we covered. 1. Oil sits at the top of the chain. The weekend strikes on Iran did not lift oil because they were already priced in. Deal optimism has oil breaking its 88 neckline after a double top, with 77 to 77.50 next. Falling oil means less inflation pressure and is good for stocks. 2. NASDAQ. Bouncing on lower oil, but the daily structure is still bearish. I am watching for a sweep of the range high and a bearish engulfing candle for shorts. Sitting on hands for now. 3. Gold. A fakeout of 4,000, then an inverse head and shoulders with the neckline heading into 4,150. After payrolls that strong it should have sold off, and it didn't. I am looking at longs on a break and retest, stops below the higher low, targeting 4,300. 4. The dollar. Pulling back on deal optimism, but the economy is strong (payrolls 165,000, unemployment 4.1%, GDP 3.4%), so dips should be bought. 5. EUR/USD. 1.1100 is defended. I will look at shorts above 1.1200 towards 1.0900 and 1.0800, but only if CPI comes in sticky. Oil rose about 16% in October, so that is what I expect. 6. The pound. The Bank of England hiked and left the door open while the RBA says it is done. GBP/AUD longs on a pullback towards 1.9350, and GBP/CAD longs on a break and pullback of 1.90, with falling oil weighing on CAD. Careful with GBP/USD into CPI. A headline only moves markets if it is outside what is already priced in. Ask what the news does to pricing, not just what it says. Thanks to everyone who joined. Back in the office tomorrow. See you in the next live. Education only, not financial advice.
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Start here: how the Club works
Welcome to the KenMacro Trading Club. First of all, glad to have you here. This community is built around two things: understanding what's driving the markets and knowing how to translate that understanding into a structured technical process. Start with the Classroom. Work through the foundations before jumping into advanced material. Check the Calendar for our scheduled New York sessions and keep an eye on Announcements & Live Desk for market updates and recordings. Sessions run Monday to Friday at 14:00 UK, starting Monday 2 November. If you're new, say hello in the pinned Introduce yourself post. Tell us what you trade, how long you've been trading and what you most want to improve. Don't worry about sounding clever. The whole point is to learn. Where everything lives Announcements & Live Desk: session details, replays and Club updates from me. Daily Macro Reads: my read on what's moving the market. Comment underneath, ask questions, challenge it. Technical Analysis & Charts: post your charts and your reasoning. Trade Reviews & Questions: ask me or the group about a trade, a setup or anything that isn't making sense. Learning & Member Progress: Classroom help, and what you're working through. General Trading Discussion: everything else about trading. And remember, no setup is guaranteed. We're here to improve our understanding, preparation and decision-making. Ken
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Introduce yourself
Let's get to know each other. Reply to this post and tell me: 1. Your name 2. Where you're based 3. What you trade (FX, gold, indices, crypto or something else) 4. The one thing about the markets you most want to understand better I read every reply, and your answers help me shape the live sessions around what you want to learn. Ken
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Missed tonight's live session? Replay + key points (8 Nov)
Missed tonight's week ahead session? The full replay (47 minutes) is in the Classroom under Live Session Replays, with chapters, lessons, the market map and the full transcript: https://www.skool.com/kenmacro-trading-club-8088/classroom/e757f5bb?md=6e9f5da2195d4309aae289e4510a7ade I prepared for the week live, before the open. Here is what we covered. 1. The dollar. A strong week of US data ended with payrolls: 165,000 jobs, unemployment down to 4.1% and earnings up. The data supports another Fed hike in December, and it is not fully priced in. DXY defended 101.50 and the neckline is 102.50. I expect upside pressure this week. 2. EUR/USD. The flip side. 1.1100 is a big area that has bounced price before. I am waiting for the break, the pullback and a bearish engulfing candle before a swing short towards 1.0900. If I miss it, fine. 3. This week. CPI on Tuesday is the big one. I expect sticky inflation. PPI is on Friday. Monday is likely to be choppy, so let the open show you how the market takes the weekend news. 4. US and Iran. More tit for tat over the weekend while peace talks continue. Markets react to what is outside the price, not to what is already in it. 5. Gold. After a jobs report that strong, gold should have closed with a convincing bearish candle, and it didn't. 4,040 to 4,050 is still defended. I am watching the hourly neckline around 4,080 for a break and retest. The dollar and gold can rise together. 6. NASDAQ. The weekly is very bearish and the 4 hour is a pullback flag. I am watching for it to roll over after the open. 7. The yen. USD/JPY looks like it wants higher, but 160 is intervention territory, so I am staying away. On a personal account your stop is not guaranteed. The Swiss franc taught me that the hard way. 8. The pound. A hawkish Bank of England (8 to 1, not unanimous, so check your sources) gives three ideas on my watchlist: EUR/GBP shorts on a break of 0.8330 towards 0.8250, GBP/AUD longs on a pullback into the range it broke, and EUR/AUD for a lower high.
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Macro + technical trading with Ken. Full courses, weekday live New York sessions and replays. Founding 100: $59/mo, then $99/mo.
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