Jan 15 • 📉 VOLATILITY & OPTIONS
$HIMS PUT Lotto Thesis (High Risk / Small Size)
First and most important: this is a SMALL, high-risk lotto position for me.Options can go to zero — especially short-dated lottos — so only risk what you’re fully comfortable losing.
🔍 The Bearish Setup (Why Puts)
- Monthly chart extended into the top of the channelHIMS recently pushed into the upper range of its long-term rising channel and failed to hold highs. That’s often where upside momentum stalls and mean reversion starts.
- Loss of momentum after distributionOn lower timeframes, price rolled over after a strong run, showing:
- Breakdown from short-term trendOn the 4H chart, price is trading below the rising structure, below key moving averages, and struggling to reclaim value.
- Volume + structure favor downside continuationVolume profile shows heavy supply overhead, while price is currently sitting below value, suggesting rallies may get sold.
- Momentum indicators rolling overRSI has failed to reclaim strength and is drifting lower — not oversold yet, meaning room for continuation.
🎯 Why PUTS (and Why Small)
- These are lotto puts, not a long-term bearish bet
- Looking for continuation or acceleration to the downside
- If price flushes into lower demand quickly, delta + gamma can expand fast
- If price chops or reclaims structure, these likely decay quickly
This is not a trade where I expect to be right every time.The goal is asymmetric payoff, not accuracy.
⚠️ Risk Management (Read This)
- This is a leveraged instrument
- Time decay works against us
- I expect some lottos to go to zero
- Position size reflects that reality
Only risk what you’re comfortable losing.
One strong move can cover multiple small losses — that’s the edge we’re playing.
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$HIMS PUT Lotto Thesis (High Risk / Small Size)
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