16) Jacksonville over Tennessee — best form + Titans collapse. 15) Houston over Indianapolis — #1 defense; high win probability. 14) New England over Miami — Pats offense profile + big spread implies separation. 13) Denver over LA Chargers — Broncos win often at home; cover is the question. 12) LA Rams over Arizona — Rams offense mismatch is massive. 11) Buffalo over NY Jets — Bills offense vs Jets scoring issues. 10) Philadelphia over Washington — Eagles edge in trenches + home. 09) Cincinnati over Cleveland — Bengals more reliable outright; Browns can still cover. 08) Kansas City over Las Vegas — Raiders offense too weak. 07) Atlanta over New Orleans — Saints offense limits comeback ability. 06) Baltimore over Pittsburgh — better offense, but rivalry volatility. 05) Dallas over NY Giants — offense mismatch; history supports DAL. 04) Tampa Bay over Carolina — cleaner baseline, even if ATS is shaky. 03) San Francisco over Seattle — coin-flip spread 02) Green Bay over Minnesota — Packers’ offensive efficiency. 01) Chicago over Detroit — Bears form + home edge.