🎓 Week 1 Wrap: What the Numbers Mean

Friday. Week 1 is officially in the books. Here's what the live data actually says — not projections, not backtests. Real signals, real markets, real outcomes.

WEEK 1 RESULTS (March 29 – April 3, 2026)

Overall: 15W / 3L / 9 Pending

Win Rate: 83.3%

Total Signals: 27

Status: VALIDATED — every signal logged before resolution

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOU

83.3% sounds good. But what does it actually mean at the position level?

If you're sizing with Kelly Criterion and you have an 83% edge over market-implied probability, your optimal bet size is significantly larger than what most people assume. The math rewards conviction — but only when the signal is real and the fee drag is managed.

The 3 losses this week were all ML signals where the YES price was between 37–40¢. That's the risk zone. Signals with YES prices in the 30–35¢ range have a cleaner track record — the crowd overprices more dramatically at those levels.

WHAT TO WATCH IN WEEK 2

→ 9 signals still pending resolution

→ 2 football matches resolve today (Atlético, Dortmund)

→ Elon tweet count window closes tonight

→ NCAA Tournament signal is longer-dated

The system keeps scanning. 25,000+ markets. Every 30 minutes. Week 2 signals are already logging.

This is what a data operation looks like — not tips, not hype. A transparent track record you can audit yourself.

Learn more in The EdgeFinder Foundation course — Classroom tab above.

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