Sunday is the best time to do what most prediction market traders never bother to do: read the markets before you trade them. Here's how EdgeFinder approaches market analysis going into each week. WHAT WE LOOK FOR 1. Overpriced YES positions — Markets where the crowd has pushed YES above 40¢ on outcomes that have low base rates. This is our primary hunting ground. The NO side captures the structural edge when the crowd is too optimistic. 2. Volume patterns — Thin volume on a market means the price hasn't been stress-tested. High volume with a YES stuck above 35¢ often signals a market ripe for a NO fade. 3. Upcoming resolution windows — We prioritize signals on markets resolving within 7-14 days. Less time = less uncertainty risk for the NO side. 4. Correlation clusters — When multiple related markets (e.g. several box office ranges for the same film) are all pending, that's a diversified NO position on a single event. We track these as clusters. THIS WEEK'S MARKET CLUSTERS → Super Mario Galaxy Movie opening weekend: Two pending signals covering the $180M-$190M and $190M-$200M range. If the film underperforms expectations, both resolve NO. Classic cluster. → Sports markets (Lens, Dortmund, Atletico): Three soccer match markets pending. The ML model flagged overpriced YES positions on all three. Win one, win all — or they resolve independently. → Michigan NCAA Tournament: A long-shot tournament winner market. At 34.5¢ YES, the crowd is overpricing Michigan. Historically, most teams priced here don't win. THE BOTTOM LINE Market analysis isn't about picking winners. It's about identifying where the crowd is systematically wrong. The data does the work — we just read it. Learn more in The EdgeFinder Foundation course — Classroom tab above.

Live signals from the EdgeFinder ML model — April 5, 2026. All signals are bet NO. We fade YES when the crowd is overpricing an outcome. That's the edge. PENDING SIGNALS — ALL BET NO 1. Will "Super Mario Galaxy Movie" OW Box Office be $190M-$200M? 2. Platform: Polymarket | Type: ML | YES: 32.1¢ → Bet NO 3. polymarket.com/event/the-super-mario-galaxy-movie-opening-weekend-box-office 4. Will Racing Club de Lens win on April 4? 5. Platform: Polymarket | Type: ML | YES: 38.5¢ → Bet NO 6. polymarket.com/event/fl1-lil-rcl-2026-04-04 7. Will Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa win on April 4? 8. Platform: Polymarket | Type: Crash | YES: ~0¢ → Bet NO 9. polymarket.com/event/es2-leo-vld-2026-04-04 10. DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? 11. Platform: Polymarket | Type: Crash | YES: ~0¢ → Bet NO 12. polymarket.com/event/deepseek-v4-released-by-march-31 13. Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on April 4? 14. Platform: Polymarket | Type: ML | YES: 30.5¢ → Bet NO 15. polymarket.com/event/lal-mad-bar-2026-04-04 16. Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on April 4? 17. Platform: Polymarket | Type: ML | YES: 34.5¢ → Bet NO 18. polymarket.com/event/bun-stu-dor-2026-04-04 19. Will "Super Mario Galaxy Movie" OW Box Office be $180M-$190M? 20. Platform: Polymarket | Type: ML | YES: 36.7¢ → Bet NO 21. polymarket.com/event/the-super-mario-galaxy-movie-opening-weekend-box-office 22. Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? 23. Platform: Polymarket | Type: ML | YES: 34.5¢ → Bet NO 24. polymarket.com/event/2026-ncaa-tournament-winner

Live since March 29, 2026. Every signal logged from Day 1. Nothing deleted. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ CURRENT RECORD ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ✅ Wins: 17 ❌ Losses: 5 ⏳ Pending: 10 📊 Win Rate: 77.3% 🔢 Total Signals: 32 🔒 Status: VALIDATED ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ BREAKDOWN BY TYPE ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ML Signals: 15W / 4L (78.9% win rate) Crash Detection: 1W / 1L (50.0% win rate) Combined: 1W / 0L (100% win rate) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ TODAY'S ACTIVE PENDING SIGNALS — ALL BET NO ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 1. Will "Super Mario Galaxy Movie" OW Box Office be $190M-$200M? | Polymarket | ML | YES: 32.1¢ → Bet NO 2. → polymarket.com/event/the-super-mario-galaxy-movie-opening-weekend-box-office 3. Will Racing Club de Lens win on April 4? | Polymarket | ML | YES: 38.5¢ → Bet NO 4. → polymarket.com/event/fl1-lil-rcl-2026-04-04 5. Will Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa win on April 4? | Polymarket | Crash | YES: ~0¢ → Bet NO 6. → polymarket.com/event/es2-leo-vld-2026-04-04 7. DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? | Polymarket | Crash | YES: ~0¢ → Bet NO 8. → polymarket.com/event/deepseek-v4-released-by-march-31 9. Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on April 4? | Polymarket | ML | YES: 30.5¢ → Bet NO 10. → polymarket.com/event/lal-mad-bar-2026-04-04 11. Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on April 4? | Polymarket | ML | YES: 34.5¢ → Bet NO 12. → polymarket.com/event/bun-stu-dor-2026-04-04 13. Will "Super Mario Galaxy Movie" OW Box Office be $180M-$190M? | Polymarket | ML | YES: 36.7¢ → Bet NO 14. → polymarket.com/event/the-super-mario-galaxy-movie-opening-weekend-box-office 15. Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Polymarket | ML | YES: 34.5¢ → Bet NO 16. → polymarket.com/event/2026-ncaa-tournament-winner

Live since March 29, 2026. Every signal logged before resolution. Nothing deleted. CURRENT RECORD Wins: 14 | Losses: 2 | Pending: 9 | Win Rate: 87.5% | Total: 25 signals | Status: VALIDATED BREAKDOWN BY TYPE ML Signals: 12W / 2L (85.7%) | Crash Detection: 1W / 0L (100%) | Combined: 1W / 0L (100%) TODAY'S ACTIVE PENDING SIGNALS — BET NO ON ALL 1. Elon Musk 115-139 tweets Apr 2-4 | YES: 35.5c | ML | polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-april-2-april-4 2. 2. Super Mario Galaxy Movie OW $180-190M | YES: 36.7c | ML | polymarket.com/event/the-super-mario-galaxy-movie-opening-weekend-box-office 3. 3. Michigan win 2026 NCAA Tournament | YES: 34.5c | ML | polymarket.com/event/2026-ncaa-tournament-winner 4. 4. Bitcoin above $68K on April 3 | YES: 35.5c | ML | polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-on-april-3 5. 5. Elon Musk 260-279 tweets Mar 27-Apr 3 | YES: 38.5c | ML | polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-march-27-april-3 6. 6. Trump approval rating 39.5-39.9 on Apr 3 | YES: 33.0c | ML | polymarket.com/event/trump-approval-rating-on-april-3 7. 7. Houthi strike on Israel by Apr 15 | YES: 38.5c | ML | polymarket.com/event/houthi-strike-on-israel-by-632 8. 8. Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March | YES: 33.5c | ML | polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-talk-to-in-march RECENT WINS (NO side) CA Barracas Central (Apr 2) | Newcastle United Jets FC (Apr 2) | Bitcoin above $68K Apr 2 | Elon Musk 240-259 tweets Mar 27-Apr 3 | BitBoy convicted (Combined) | Bitcoin above $68K Mar 31 | Sergey Brin 3rd richest Mar 31 | S&P 500 hit $6,300 low in March | Bitcoin above $68K Mar 30 | Donald Trump Truth Social posts Mar 24-31 | Bitcoin above $68K Mar 30 (day 2)

Friday. Week 1 is officially in the books. Here's what the live data actually says — not projections, not backtests. Real signals, real markets, real outcomes. WEEK 1 RESULTS (March 29 – April 3, 2026) Overall: 15W / 3L / 9 Pending Win Rate: 83.3% Total Signals: 27 Status: VALIDATED — every signal logged before resolution WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOU 83.3% sounds good. But what does it actually mean at the position level? If you're sizing with Kelly Criterion and you have an 83% edge over market-implied probability, your optimal bet size is significantly larger than what most people assume. The math rewards conviction — but only when the signal is real and the fee drag is managed. The 3 losses this week were all ML signals where the YES price was between 37–40¢. That's the risk zone. Signals with YES prices in the 30–35¢ range have a cleaner track record — the crowd overprices more dramatically at those levels. WHAT TO WATCH IN WEEK 2 → 9 signals still pending resolution → 2 football matches resolve today (Atlético, Dortmund) → Elon tweet count window closes tonight → NCAA Tournament signal is longer-dated The system keeps scanning. 25,000+ markets. Every 30 minutes. Week 2 signals are already logging. This is what a data operation looks like — not tips, not hype. A transparent track record you can audit yourself. Learn more in The EdgeFinder Foundation course — Classroom tab above.