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Coinbase $178 - Option Play
I don't like to go overboard and have a bunch of different optoin plays. If I invest in a lot of thigns, its because its not day trading positions. They are longer term holds. For this reason, when I take out an option play it is few and far between, and I do so when things align for exactly what I'm looking for. Several areas on confluence that makes Coinbase Long a high probability trade for me in this moment. Look at the picture I included of Coinbase on a 1d chart. Confluence: 1. We have major level ov previous support at $163. 2. We have a deviation at that low, went below this area, and got back above 3. We have a trend line break out (see chart drawing) 4. we have fixed range volume profile deviation and back in range with good reaction 5. Crypto is starting to bottom (seems like an area where its catching momentum for now at least on a micro, not necessarily macro bottom) Thats a lot to make me remove emotion and play what I would consider a high probability long on Coinbase. Due to length of previous similar moves, I took out an option contract until Jan. This is not financial advise, purely educational about what I look for AND the exact play I took. I didn't include the amount I invested as I don't think its relevant nor want to sway you into any decision. Cheers
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Coinbase $178 - Option Play
Space X - $SPCX - currently at $128
I personally didn't buy Space X during the IPO. It ran up pretty quickly to $224(ish), during that week. It has since now dropped to about $115-128. Something to keep in mind is "unlocks". For those who don't know what this means. I'll try to make it simple. Every company has employees. Some Companies give those employees "shares" or stocks. Most of the time they are worthless (no liquidation event or never go public). However, sometimes they are very valuable. In this instance, the employees who work for SpaceX have received shares, and lots of them dependent on diff variables (time w company, position, etc.) What happens is when a company goes from private to a publicly traded one, aka on the stock market, these employees are now able to sell those shares and turn "paper money" into real money. HOWEVER... there are rules. There are things called lock up or black out periods. Where the employees of that company are NOT ALLOWED to sell. For many reasons, one being, they are privy to certain information that is private and not public information. so if they can sell when internal important news hits, they can react and sell or buy with an "unfair advantage", for that reason, there are periods in which they are not legally allowed to sell. Another thing is when a company goes public, typical "lock up period", is going to be 6 months, and then some other small intricacies dependent on role, share amount, compensation package (mostly executives), etc. Hopefully you understand lock ups/black out periods, at least at a high level. That said, SpaceX has some major unlocks coming up. Here are the dates - August 6, 2026: The first major unlock occurs right after the company's debut earnings report on August 4, 2026, freeing up 20% of eligible locked-up stock. - August - October 2026: Smaller tranches (about 7% each) are released on a rolling schedule every two to three weeks. - Late October / November 2026: An additional 28% of shares unlocks following the third-quarter earnings report. - December 8, 2026: The main 180-day lock-up concludes, freeing any remaining shares from the initial block. - June 12, 2027: Founder Elon Musk’s shares (and those of certain key executives) are locked for one full year, releasing after this 366-day period
Space X - $SPCX - currently at $128
INTRODUCTION
Hello everyone I'm new member here
Tesla - Currently at $375
Tesla is in an interesting spot. Currenly back in the 2022 yearly range. Right now, since we got back under $402 (2022 top of range), what I'm looking for is: 1. the price likely to go to $366 or $264. This would be top middle or middle of this range. (picture 1) 2. If price gets back above the 2022 range, then it would effectively be running same playbook that took it from $239 all the way to $402 back in 2024/25 (see picture 2)
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Tesla - Currently at $375
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